It’s safe to say, Southgate’s reign as England manager has been far from a failure. He may have failed to win a trophy and thus ultimately take football home, but he has greatly improved England’s tournament record and has turned the team into a respected international force.
The World Cup in Qatar was his third major tournament, his first being the World Cup in Russia in 2018. Across that period he has reached a semi-final (Russia), a final (Euro 2020), and then the quarter-finals in Qatar where they went out narrowly to eventual runners-up France.
Along the way, there were two Nations League campaigns, too. In the first of those, they reached the final four. In 2022, they had a disastrous run, not winning a match in the group phase and being relegated to League B. That failure represents the biggest black mark against Southgate’s name so far but, there again, it’s just the Nations League.
Across the three major tournaments Southgate has led England to, he has won six knock-out matches. Between 1968 and 2016, the England team won the exact same number of major tournament knock-out matches. That puts the relative success of Southgate’s tenure into sharp focus.
In his time as England's manager, his record stands at 49 wins, 18 draws and 14 losses across 81 matches. That’s a winning rate of 60.5 percent. Not spectacular but not bad at all and one of the better records in England’s history, in fact.
Of all of England’s past managers (who’ve managed more than one match), only Alf Ramsey, Glen Hoddle and Fabio Capello have won games more consistently.
Despite his record standing up against those before him, there has been a bit of negativity circling Southgate in the media throughout his time in charge. Mostly, that relates to the way his team plays and whether they are good enough given the talent at his disposal. His inability to win a trophy has allowed those arguments enough regular fuel to be sustained.
Given the length of his time in charge and the fact that they failed to win the World Cup, there was legitimate room to question whether he was still the best man to continue in the job beyond Qatar. Southgate himself also took time to ponder the issue despite already having signed a contract until 2024 in November 2021.
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Just like players, managers have strengths and weaknesses, too. Southgate’s strength has often been the way he sets the team up to defend. Their impressive Euro 2020 run was particularly notable due to the fact that they conceded just two goals in the entire tournament.
Their 2022 World Cup campaign, on the other hand, was notable for the way England excelled going forward. They convinced all in their healthy wins over Iran, Wales and Senegal and it really looked like they had evolved in an attacking sense compared with the year before and their dire run in the Nations League over the summer.
Only the finalists, Argentina and France, scored more goals than England at the World Cup in Qatar and they played two more games. England managed 13 goals in just five matches, meaning they averaged the most goals per game of anyone in the tournament.
It seems, Southgate has added a string to his bow. England are now not just a very well-organised side but quite a free-scoring one, too.
Unfortunately, as mentioned, they went out to France in the quarters and the strength of their performances in the tournament will thus be condemned to live exclusively in the memories of true England fans. The world will mostly forget the 2022 iteration of England and will only really take notice of them again once the next major tournament wheels around.
So what does Southgate need to improve by the time the Euros arrive in 2024, assuming they qualify?
TWO KEY CRITICISMS ASSESSED
One notion that pervades conversations about Southgate’s England is that they often seem to play weaker teams very well and struggle as soon as they meet top opposition.
They are thus sometimes accused of being proverbial flat-track bullies.
What’s more, a lot has been made over the years about Southgate’s in-game management and his inability to make effective tactical changes and substitutions to turn matches around if they aren’t going as planned.
Let’s inspect these two ideas deeper by looking at some relevant numbers.
England are currently fifth in FIFA’s men's world rankings. The other nations in the top 10 in order (at the time of writing) are Brazil, Argentina, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Let’s add Germany to that list and see how Southgate has fared against these 'top 10' sides to date.
Southgate has faced all those sides in his reign aside from Argentina and Portugal. In the 26 matches against the other ‘top’ teams listed, Southgate has won six times, drawn nine, and lost the remaining 11.
That’s a winning rate of just 26 percent against the best international competition (a losing rate of 42 percent).
That is not the most encouraging record and one that Southgate will want to improve if he is to win over his detractors and, more importantly, win a trophy.
The loss to France in the World Cup quarter-finals represented another occasion in which they failed to defeat a top opponent after breezing past everyone else on their way to that stage.
Another interesting aspect of the loss to France in Qatar was that it was the only match in the tournament in which England conceded first. There seems to be a theme when Southgate’s England are dissected in the media: If the game goes to plan and they don’t concede, they tend to win. If not, and they concede first, they find it hard to turn the match around and salvage something from it.
Much has been made of Southgate's inability to change the face of games that aren't going his way. Often his substitutions (or lack thereof) are scrutinised. For example, taking Bukayo Saka (21) off against France after being one of England's better players or not making changes earlier enough in the final of the delayed 2020 Euros.
This point certainly feels pertinent but let’s take a closer look at the times England has conceded the first goal to see if it is actually accurate that England are bad at turning games around.
During Southgate's time in charge, there have been 19 occasions that England have conceded the first goal. Of those 19 games, they have won seven, lost eight and drawn three times.
17 of those matches were competitive and in six of those matches, they recovered to eventually win.
His winning percentage in competitive matches in which they concede first is thus almost exactly 35 percent.
At first glance, that might sound poor but it’s actually pretty good considering how rarely teams win after conceding the first goal.
For some context - in the last five years of the Premier League, teams who scored first in matches only lost 12 percent of the time. Generally speaking, the side that scores first in professional football wins about 65 percent of matches.
Southgate has kept England's losing rate, after conceding the first goal, to just 47 per cent in competitive fixtures.
Putting Southgate's substitutions to one side, in relative terms, he has been quite good at salvaging matches it seems. And let’s not forget, they were only one poor penalty kick away from levelling the quarterfinal at the World Cup for a second time, too.
Winning matches after conceding the first goal is tough for any team - that’s a trivial fact. And while Southgate could, of course, improve his numbers in this scenario, it’s certainly not a fundamental flaw of his side on face value - not until the numbers begin to expose a particularly poor trend emerging.
The bigger statistical blotch on his record is his inability to topple the best teams around the world, the ones that tend to go and win trophies. If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best on your way.
GOING FORWARD
Southgate’s now extensive experience in the job means he has a lot to draw from, reflect upon, and use to develop his skillset as he prepares his side to win the next trophy. What's more, there are 18 months until the Euros with qualification starting in March.
Assuming they qualify for that tournament, the true challenge will come for England in the latter stages when they come up against the likes of Croatia, Italy or France - the nations that have cut short Southgate’s dream of finally taking football home in their last three attempts.
Just like players improve, so too can managers. It's fair to say Southgate's side has followed a steady trend of improvement. First, he made them solid defensively and then they started to express themselves offensively. What's next? Well, maybe fine-tuning that in-game management further or perhaps just getting a little bit lucky when it matters most.
If Southgate's England have taught us anything in the last three major-tournament cycles it's that winning those competitions is really quite a difficult task for anyone, even the good teams.
