One last chance for Fiji to avoid disastrous UK tour

Match News and Current Form

Fijian rugby is experiencing a bit of unwanted turmoil in July after two very humiliating Nations Championship defeats that have pinned them to the bottom of the Southern Hemisphere standings. Despite leading the competition in the first two rounds for both offloads (42) and turnovers won (16), two stats which are a testament to their aggressive and entertaining play, their side has already conceded 112 points in this competition. That’s despite conceded an average of just 22 points per game, albeit mostly against weaker opposition in the Pacific Nations Cup, but last weekend’s 73-8 loss to England and the prior defeat to Wales (39-24) in which they were favourites point to just how disastrous selling their three home games to the UK has been. 

Fiji rugby chief John Sanday must have been fuming after he demanded a greater ‘return on investment’ from the players even prior to the 65-point loss to England and an enormous improvement will be expected from a side that includes one fascinating new inclusion. 34-year-old back Virimi Vakatawa will make his debut for Fiji and brings 32 caps of international experience into the side, having played for France up until a heart abnormality halted his career in 2022. 

Scotland Gregor Townsend was overall fairly proud of his team’s 42-28 loss to world champions South Africa, particularly for the way they fought back from 14-0 to level the scores up at half-time, but he was left to lament both player errors and what he said was his own mistake to not introduce his bench players a little earlier. They’ve got plenty of defensive concerns of their own, having conceded 163 points in their last four games (W2, L2), but still have plenty of power and physicality to exploit Fiji’s vulnerabilities at the driving maul.

With the knowledge that they’ll be taking on a struggling Tier 2 nation, Townsend has made 14 changes to his team as he uses this match as an opportunity to “create depth” and “give opportunities” ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup. That means a reunion for all-time leading try scorers Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe on the wings, whilst back-row Freddy Douglas and hooker Gregor Hiddleston will get their maiden international starts. Gregor Brown is the only one of last week’s run-on side to retain his starting position.

Head-to-Head History

Fiji famously defeated Scotland on home soil in Suva last year, where each of their three wins against Scotland were recorded. Scotland won all seven games to take place outside of Fiji. 

Hot Stats and Streaks

The betting favourite won 86% of Fiji’s matches since the start of 2024.

Fiji conceded the opening try in nine of their last 11 matches (W5, D4 when doing so). 

Five of Scotland’s seven games this year cleared the main total points handicap.

The second half was the highest scoring half in seven of the nine matches involving either nation this year. 

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Fiji captain Tevita Ikanivere returned to the scoresheet last round, continuing some excellent form which has seen him record a try in six of his last 11 games for club or country. Winger Darcy Graham will be grateful for the opportunity presented by a starting appearance as he has scored in each of his last three internationals in which he played more than 20 minutes. 

Fiji lost both Semi Radradra and Tim Hoyt to serious injuries last weekend, whilst Simione Kuruvoli received a lengthy suspension for violent conduct. Scotland are without Rory Darge, Kyle Steyn and Alex Samuel after they all sustained injuries last round. 

Click here to view the match squads and latest team news.

Betting Analysis

The trends of both teams point towards the second half being the highest scoring half. 

Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.