The World Cup calculator: odds of qualifying from groups A and B

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The World Cup calculator: odds of qualifying from groups A and B
Ecuador managed to pick up a late point against Netherlands as they drew 1-1
Ecuador managed to pick up a late point against Netherlands as they drew 1-1
Reuters
The third and final matchday of the group phase begins this Tuesday in the A and B groups. The mathematics are not deceiving, but the combinations are multiple depending not only on the wins, draws and defeats that may occur, but also on the results with their goals conceded and goals scored.

Everything plays a part in ensuring that at the end of the matches we know exactly which two teams will advance to the Round of 16. But first, with the help of whowillqualify.com, we can find out what the odds are on all the teams playing on Tuesday. 

GROUP A: Netherlands vs Qatar and Ecuador vs Senegal

Group A standings
Flashscore

-Netherlands (4 points)
Qualifies if: 

-Wins or draws against Qatar.

-Loses to Qatar and Ecuador beats Senegal. 

-Loses to Qatar and Senegal and Ecuador draw. In that case, they would qualify, for example, by losing 0-2 and drawing the other match 0-0. But they would be out by losing 0-2 and drawing 1-0 in the other match.

-They lose to Qatar 0-1 and Senegal beat Ecuador 0-2 or better. Even if Senegal beat Ecuador 0-1, they could still go through on the basis of fair play.

Their chances of qualifying are 87.76%.
 

-Ecuador (4 points): 
Qualifies if: 

-Wins or draws against Senegal.

-Loses to Senegal and the Netherlands loses to Qatar. In this scenario, goal difference matters. For example, if Ecuador loses 0-1, the Netherlands should lose 0-2. If it does 0-1, fair play would have to be looked at. 

Their chances of qualifying are 68.88%.
 

-Senegal (3 points): 
Qualifies if: 

-Wins Ecuador. 

-Draws against Ecuador and Qatar beats Netherlands by more than two goals.

Their chances of qualifying are 43.37%.
 

-Qatar (0 points): 
They are eliminated no matter what they do. 

Their chances of qualifying are 0%.

Group B: England vs Wales and Iran vs USA

Group B standings
Flashscore

-England (4 points): 
Qualifies if: 

-Wins or draws against Wales. 

-Loses to Wales by fewer than four goals (or fewer than five if Iran and USA draw).

Their chances of qualifying are 94.90%.
 

-Iran (3 points): 
Qualifies if: 

-Wins against the United States.

-Draws against the United States and England does not lose to Wales (or if they do, by at least six goals).

Their chances of qualifying are 54.08%.
 

-USA (2 points):
Qualifies if: 

-Wins Iran.

Their chances of qualifying are 35.71%.
 

-Wales (1 point):
Qualifies if: 

-Wins England by four goals or more.

-Beats England by three goals or less and USA and Iran draw.

Their chances of qualifying are 15.31%.