Novak Djokovic's quest for a first title of the year leads back to his Beijing fortress
Match News and Form
Novak Djokovic has built an extraordinary record at this Beijing venue, winning the title on all six of his previous visits between 2009 and 2015. Even at this late stage of his career, despite increasing physical struggles, he is refusing to let that legacy slip. After being pushed hard by Nuno Borges and Bu Yunchaokete in the opening rounds and requiring medical timeouts in both matches, Djokovic then faced younger, fitter top-10 opponents in Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, yet showcased his trademark resilience and mental strength to grind out victories against both.
Given Novak Djokovic's struggles in recent weeks, particularly his three-match losing streak before arriving in Beijing, he appeared increasingly likely to finish the season without a title, which would have been the first such season of his career at any level. However, he has now given himself a strong chance of avoiding that unwanted record by reaching the Beijing final, his first title-match appearance since the Australian Open final back in January, where he faced Carlos Alcaraz and, against the odds, led by a set before eventually fading physically and losing in four sets.
Alex de Minaur's recent form has been far from convincing, and he has not looked particularly impressive in Beijing either, especially in his second-round battle against Quentin Halys, where he came dangerously close to crashing out. Yet he has found a way to win every match and secured an unlikely place in the final, already making this his best result in Beijing after improving on last year's semifinal run. By surpassing that result, De Minaur has also earned a valuable ranking boost, moving up two places to No. 8 and giving himself some breathing room in the top 10 after months of sliding down the rankings amid his poor form.
Head-to-Head: Novak Djokovic leads 3-1
Barring that one United Cup meeting in 2024, when De Minaur looked absolutely possessed in front of the home fans throughout that campaign, playing some of the best tennis of his career and dominating Djokovic, this has largely been a very comfortable matchup for the Serbian.
Stats and Facts
Novak Djokovic is the oldest player to reach an ATP 500-level final, surpassing Roger Federer's 2019 run to the final in Basel, where he defeated Alex de Minaur 6-2, 6-2.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Djokovic is 10-5 in tour-level finals, with four of his five defeats coming against either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner.
This is Djokovic's first tour-level final as a non-top-10 player since Wimbledon 2018, when he dominated Kevin Anderson in the final.
Alex de Minaur has a 11-5 record in tour-level finals.
Nine of De Minaur's 11 tour-level titles have come against opponents ranked outside the top 20 in the final.
Betting Analysis
If there is one thing we have learned from this Beijing campaign, it is that the venue remains Novak Djokovic's fortress, and he is not going to let anyone breach it easily. He continues to stand tall as a formidable presence, and it will take a massive mental and gutsy effort to finally bring him down here. Alex de Minaur is unlikely to be that player, especially given his track record against the sport's elite, against whom he has consistently fallen short, often before even taking the court.
