Daniil Medvedev must keep his cool against a never-say-die Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai semi-finals
Match News and Form
Rafael Jodar’s Shanghai debut has been an exceptional display of fighting spirit and mental strength. He arrived on a three-match tour losing streak, with a physically taxing US Open series beginning to take its toll, which is entirely understandable for any player in his first full season of top-level tennis. He has turned that around through sheer willingness to dig in and keep his ATP Finals dream alive. All four of his matches this week have gone the distance, and he has lost the first set every time, yet he has found a way to win on each occasion, including against established names Jiri Lehecka and Casper Ruud.
The Spaniard is now the youngest semi-finalist in Shanghai Masters history, and the run has done a world of good for his ATP Finals hopes. He has climbed to eighth in the race, the final qualifying spot. Even more could be unlocked this week. Winning the title would bring his top-10 debut, and having only broken into the top 100 in March, he would set a new record for the shortest time between a top-100 and top-10 debut. That mark has stood since Boris Becker set it in 1985. Breaking it, though, will demand even greater physical and mental effort.
Daniil Medvedev is also fighting for an ATP Finals place and to maintain a strong footing inside the top 10 of the ATP rankings, which demanded a big result in Shanghai with semi-final points to defend. He has delivered. His form has been impressive throughout the Asian swing and has continued here, with a straight-sets win over long-time rival Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last 16. He followed that with a three-set victory over a dangerous-looking Tommy Paul, ensuring he has protected the semi-final points he earned here last year.
The Russian has statistically been the best hard-court player this year, with a 34-9 record, a source of real satisfaction for someone who takes such pride in his achievements on the surface. A dominant early-season stretch brought him the Dubai title and a runner-up finish at Indian Wells, and he appears to be matching that level on the Asian swing. He began with the title in Hangzhou before his disqualification in the Beijing semi-finals, where he was on the verge of defeat against Novak Djokovic. He has rebounded superbly to reach the semi-finals in Shanghai, where he has a solid record as the 2019 champion.
Head-to-head: 0-0
Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev have never met before.
Stats and Facts
Jodar has just one win in six matches against top-10 players, and he is 0-3 against them on hard courts.
Jodar’s only previous Masters semi-final came recently in Canada, where he lost in straight sets to Brandon Nakashima.
Medvedev has won 11 of his 18 Masters semi-finals, with a 1-1 record at this stage in 2026.
Medvedev is yet to lose a completed match on the Asian swing, winning all 11.
Betting Analysis
Rafael Jodar’s habit of fighting back and dragging matches the distance makes him a particularly tricky opponent for Daniil Medvedev. The Russian has suffered several costly mental meltdowns in recent times, most notably in last week’s Beijing semi-final, so keeping his composure will be key.
Otherwise, everything points Medvedev’s way. He has a terrific record in Shanghai, is well used to big matches at this stage, having faced Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz in the past, and is in good form. He is also in far better physical shape than Jodar, and should win provided he stays calm and brings his best tennis.
