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How Kimi Antonelli can win his first Formula 1 World Championship in Mexico

Updated
Kimi Antonelli speaks to the press before the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix
Kimi Antonelli speaks to the press before the 2026 Singapore Grand PrixPhoto by JOE PORTLOCK / GETTY IMAGES ASIAPAC / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

At just 20, Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli is just two points away from becoming the youngest-ever Formula 1 World Drivers' Champion. Flashscore explains how and when he can win the world title.

It has been a remarkable rise to the summit of Formula 1 for Kimi Antonelli.

The young Italian entered F1 in 2025, replacing the mercurial Lewis Hamilton at the team he won six World Drivers' Championships and eight World Constructors' Championships with. A nigh-on thankless task, Antonelli quickly rose to the occasion as the third-youngest Formula 1 driver ever, became the third-youngest podium finisher ever in Canada, and grabbed two more podiums in his debut season.

Then, in 2026, everything clicked. Mercedes built a fantastic car, the W17, and Antonelli dominated from the get-go.

Kimi Antonelli after winning the 2026 Italian Grand Prix at Monza
Kimi Antonelli after winning the 2026 Italian Grand Prix at MonzaPhoto by ANDREA DIODATO / NURPHOTO / NURPHOTO VIA AFP

After a second-place finish in Melbourne, Antonelli won five races in a row and built a comfortable lead in the standings over teammate George Russell. As of the United States Grand Prix, Antonelli has finished on the podium in 15 of the 18 races, making these the current standings:

1. Kimi Antonelli (365 points)

2. George Russell (242 points)

3. Lewis Hamilton (241 points)

 

With just five Grands Prix left in the 2026 Formula 1 season, Kimi Antonelli is on match point as we head to the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez for the Mexican Grand Prix, but what does he need to win the World Drivers' Championship and become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history? Flashscore explains.

How Kimi Antonelli can win the Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship

After winning the United States Grand Prix and seeing George Russell, his closest title rival, finish eighth, Kimi Antonelli currently leads the World Drivers' Championship by 123 points.

After the Mexico Grand Prix, a maximum of 100 points remain to be won.

That means that if Kimi Antonelli wants to win the Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship in Austin, he will have to pick up at least two points.

Knowing that, this is what Kimi Antonelli needs to win the Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship in Mexico City:

• Kimi Antonelli finishes ninth or higher.

Kimi Antonelli (R) leads Lewis Hamilton and George Russell by over 100 points
Kimi Antonelli (R) leads Lewis Hamilton and George Russell by over 100 pointsPhoto by MARK THOMPSON / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

If he finishes ninth or higher in Mexico, Kimi Antonelli will become the youngest Formula 1 world champion in history at 20 years and 68 days old, usurping Sebastian Vettel. Antonelli would also become the third Italian world champion in the sport's history, and the first since the legendary Alberto Ascari won in 1953.

What happens if two drivers finish tied on points?

George Russell and Lewis Hamilton could theoretically still finish the season level on points with Antonelli, but the Italian would have to DNF in nearly every race, and either Russell or Hamilton would need to win every remaining Grand Prix. So if that happens, what then?

When two or more drivers finish the season tied on points, the tiebreaker goes to the driver with the most wins that season.

With his win in Austin, Antonelli reached nine Grand Prix wins for the season. With four races left after the United States Grand Prix, neither Russell (3 wins) nor Hamilton (1 win) can match Antonelli anymore, giving him a clear tiebreaker edge.

The 2026 Mexico Grand Prix will take place on Sunday, November 1st, at 21:00 CEST.

Paul Winters is Flashscore's Netherlands country manager, having previously worked for Flashscore's Netherlands desk. Paul is an expert on the Eredivisie and also specialises in the NFL, as well as a plethora of other sports. Residing in 'sunny' Katwijk, you can follow all of the news from the Netherlands here. 

You can find Paul on X and LinkedIn.

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