Marseille – Montpellier
Marseille will have to play against Montpellier without centre-back Leonardo Balerdi, who is still serving a penalty. The young Argentine is the team's third busiest man in the field this season, so this is a big hit to the functioning of the game.
This was evident in the match against Reims, in which Igor Tudor's players allowed their opponent 1.95 xG, and although they celebrated the victory in the end, they were definitely not in control of the match. Even though Marseille, with an average of 1.16 expected goals allowed per game, ranks as the sixth best league defence in terms of the quality of chances they allow their opponents into, they are very vulnerable on the counter-attack.
They have allowed opponents a combined 13.2 xG from breakaways, which is the sixth-worst record in Ligue 1. This could be an opportunity for Montpellier, who can threaten from there. Together, they've racked up 13 xG and scored 12 goals, which are above-average numbers in the league. Marseille has allowed the highest volume of chances this season when taking centres from deep, which in turn Montpellier creates the most opportunities from and will certainly rely on them in this encounter.
Diagonal passes from the midfield into the box will be a huge weapon for the underdog, who are enjoying a six-game unbeaten run in the league. Montpellier successfully plays roughly two of these per game, and on average they increase the team's chances of scoring the most per pass. The data shows that Marseille have huge difficulties defending this type of pass.
Copenhagen - Nordsjälland
The highlight of the opening round of the Championship Group of the Danish Superliga will be the direct competition for the first place in the table. The two teams will be leaders Nordsjälland and second-placed FC Copenhagen, which is only one point behind its rival and will have home advantage on Sunday.
The weekend's match promises to be an even show and possibly a low scoring affair. Not only do two quality league defences meet, which allow their opponents a low number of chances and are very similar in terms of data analytics, both teams can also rely on a very good goalkeeper this season.
If the average Superliga goalkeeper faced the same shots as Copenhagen's Kamil Grabara, he would have conceded three more goals. Nordsjälland's Andreas Hansen is an even better shot stopper, having already prevented five goals with his saves.
The opponents are also similar in terms of the quality of chances created. Copenhagen averages 1.95 expected goals per game, while Nordsjälland is at 1.82. These are the two best quality attacks in the league, so from this perspective the current position in the opponents' table is well deserved.
Favoured Copenhagen will not only face a solid defence led by Hansen, they will also have to be very wary of their opponent's quick counters. Nordsjälland's counter attacks are the most dangerous in the league. Not only do they take the most of them in a match, but they also create the best shooting opportunities. It has already managed to score 12 goals from them, six more than Copenhagen.
Analysis of the passes shows that Copenhagen allows the best chances after diagonal passes from the midfield and perpendicular passes to the edges of the box, which are also passes that make Nordsjälland very dangerous.
Opponents have a surprisingly high success rate of passes and dribbles into the central area inside the penalty area against Copenhagen this season. Against weaker teams, they often stop these actions before the shot is taken, but this time they will be forced to defend winger Ernest Nuamah in these spaces.
The 19-year-old Ghanaian sensation has a great selection of space in the penalty area and regularly gets himself into excellent shooting positions. In a metric assessing how well a player receives passes in good spaces, he clearly has the best record among wingers in Denmark. If Nordsjälland scores, he will most likely be the one to do it.
Bröndby – Viborg
If Copenhagen falters, Viborg can move much closer to second place in the table, playing away to sixth-placed Bröndby. Based on the quality of chances created and allowed, they are the better team - they should have scored four more goals and conceded four fewer compared to their opponents so far.
Also in this case, we can rely on a quick transition to attack by one of the teams. Viborg has accumulated the second highest xG from breakaway situations so far and, like Nordsjälland, has scored 12 times from them. Moreover, Bröndby's counter-attacks are the worst defended in the whole league and with 11 xG allowed, they have scored the same number of goals.
Against teams that threaten from counter attacks, they regularly score a high number of goals. Viborg can be counted in this set, as they took home a 2-0 win from Bröndby Stadium in mid-November. When the two teams met in September, the match ended 0-0, but Viborg had an overwhelming advantage and won at xG by 2.36-0.52.
The analysis also shows that Bröndby has problems intercepting passes and dribbles from the left side, which is where Viborg most often gets into the final third. In addition, they often finish the action on the flanks with the center, which is their strongest weapon. Bröndby, on the other hand, is a team that has a lot of trouble defending such balls - it allows its best chances after crosses from the side, followed by crosses from deep in the field and only then other types of passes.
A complication for Viborg may be the fact that the team's top scorer and one of its key players, Jay-Roy Grot, left the team in February to sign with Japanese side Kashiwa Reysol. And coach Jacob Friis is now being lacking options on that position. He currently has only Gambia's Alassane Jatta at his disposal, but he is practically missing dangerous shots and has been failing to finish for some time now.
The other realistic option is Paulinho, who although looked interesting in the Portuguese second league, is still going through a period of acclimatisation in Denmark. And young Brazilian Renato Júnior is a big unknown. Still, Viborg has a decent chance of success.
