That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Slovacko vs Mlada Boleslav
Eighth-placed Mlada Boleslav will visit fourth-placed Slovacko in the Czech Republic's First League on Sunday. While according to the bookmakers, the visitors have only a roughly 25% chance of winning, it is actually a very even match in which the Central Bohemian side could succeed if they play to their strengths.
In terms of the quality of scoring opportunities created across the 2022/23 season, both teams are similar. Mlada Boleslav have so far accumulated 22.24 expected non-penalty goals, just 3 less than Slovacko. On the other hand, they allow their opponents fewer dangerous chances. According to the data models, Mlada Boleslav should have conceded 21 goals, while Slovacko 23.
The quality of the goalkeepers is clearly on Boleslav's side, too. Jan Seda (37) is the best performer in this position in the current season, together with Jindrich Stanek (26) from Plzen and Michal Reichl (30) from Hradec Kralove. If the average league goalkeeper faced identical shots, they would have conceded three more goals than Seda.
On the other hand, Slovacko's Filip Nguyen (30) has already conceded four more goals than the models deem he should have, considering the quality of attempts against him. He is doing very poorly so far against both shots from inside the box and from long-range. Thus, although Slovacko is considered to be a defensively very capable team, Mlada Boleslav has been a bit better this season.
Further analysis of the sides' attacks gives us a more complete picture of this matchup. Boleslav is one of the most counter-attacking teams in the league. Only Slavia Prague make a greater number of quick counterattacks on average per game. Although Boleslav's players do not always finish their counterattacks ideally, the data shows that Slovacko has had a big problem with defending these situations in the long term.
They have conceded from 17 such situations, which is the second-worst result after Pardubice. And this weakness is also confirmed by the data - in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) from counterattacks, only Teplice and Ceske Budejovice are worse. The aforementioned Pardubice are at a similar level.
Slovacko also have some problems with defending set-pieces, from which they concede quite a high number of chances. In fact, eight other Czech league teams defend them better so this could be a target for Boleslav as well.
Against teams playing a high defensive block besides Boleslav - such as Sigma Olomouc, Bohemians or Hradec - coach Martin Svedik prescribes a rather defensive tactic for his side, which is the reason for the low number of chances created. On average, Slovacko have an xG of 0.99 and an xGA of 1.16 in these games.
The team from the town of Uherske Hradiste is one of those sides that primarily rely on crosses in the final third. However, they are not a very effective strategy against Boleslav as they have the second-highest defensive header success rate in the league after Plzen and only Sparta and Slavia win deflected balls more often in their own defensive third.
Slovacko will therefore have to look for other ways into the opponents' penalty area and it will be interesting to see what tactics they come up with in this match. Expect Boleslav to surprise them.
Slovan vs Trnava
Trnava is still in the race for the Slovak Fortuna League title along with leaders Dunajska Streda and the second-placed Slovan Bratislava, whose ground they will visit this Saturday. This 22nd-round match will also determine the position of both teams going into the title group, which will begin in the next round.
In terms of the basic data models evaluating the quality of chances created and chances converted (non-penalties), the two teams are as similar as can be. According to the expected points metric, both should have 40 points, scored 33 goals (1.6 per game) and conceded 17 (0.8 per game). What's more, there are only minimal statistical differences between their goalkeepers Adrian Chovan (27) and Dominik Takac (24).
So, could only the small details and the home advantage decide it for Slovan? Possibly, but our analysis shows that the home team will face some considerable challenges. The first one is set-piece situations. No other team has created as many quality chances from them as Trnava so far this season. Moreover, they finish them well - from 7 expected goals, they have already scored 10 times. No other team has been as successful.
On the other hand, set pieces are Bratislava's defensive weakness. They are 5th worst in terms of chances conceded and 4th worst in terms of goals conceded. Only Zlate Moravce, Michalovce and Liptovsky Mikulas have fished the ball out of the net more.
At the same time, Trnava create the best chances from counter-attacks, which could be a factor in their eventual success but probably not that significant as Slovan defends breakaways very well.
What is a huge problem for the Bratislava defence, however, is the way Trnava gets the ball into the penalty area. They create their best chances by finding the far post with crosses into the opposition's box - something they are strong at from both sides of the field. This is also the type of attack from which Slovan has conceded the most chances this season. If they are unable to intercept these crosses, Trnava will get chances and possibly goals.
Zurich vs Servette
Servette and Zurich will play a very important match in the Swiss Super League this weekend. The Geneva-based side will be looking to hold on to second place as they try to cement Champions League qualification ahead St. Gallen, while their opponents are just two points away from relegation.
This match is not only a good example of the balance of the Swiss top flight but also of the extent to which luck and misfortune influence the results of teams.
In terms of the quality of chances conceded, Zurich actually has a slightly better defence. What's more, there is only a slight difference in offensive quality between these sides that are at opposite ends of the table - Servette has created just 3 more expected goals.
In reality, however, Zurich have scored five fewer goals compared to their opponents, conceded five more and are 12 points behind them in the table.
In terms of the data, Servette are the favourite in this match. Zurich are one of the teams that have often scored from set pieces this season, while Servette create a lot of good chances from them as well. Only St. Gallen and Young Boys Bern have better success rates for offensive headers and they will therefore both be a danger from the air throughout the match.
Servette do not limit themselves to crosses, though. They have also created their best opportunities this season from cutback zones and perpendicular passes from the midfield - situations from which Zurich is more vulnerable.
Keep an eye on all these fixtures in your efforts to hack the weekend!
