Match News and Current Form
Eddie Jones’ Japan got their inaugural Nations Championship campaign off to a tremendous start when they got their first win over Italy in eight years, running out 27-10 winners despite being nine-point outsiders and conceding the opening try within a matter of minutes. Their joy did not last much longer as losses to both Ireland (20-36) and France (15-42) both followed the script, which saw them competitive for about the first 40 and 20 minutes respectively.
As is so often the case with Jones, there were mind games during the week when he insisted the pressure is on Australia rather than his side, whose Nations Championship victory over Italy was their only defeat of a Tier 1 opponent from their last eight such games. He also threw a curveball the way of opposition coach Les Kiss by omitting former Queensland Red Harry Hockings, who Kiss had only hours earlier described as one of Japan’s leading threats. He has rotated his forward pack for this match and made only one change to the backs, recalling Taira Main to the wing from the bench.
Kiss spoke of his confidence in the way his new coaching team has come together as he gets ready to make his debut as Wallabies coach, inheriting a team from Joe Schmidt that demolished Italy in Perth (57-10) after losing to both France (26-42) and Ireland (31-33) in dramatically different circumstances. Only a missed penalty kick separated them from a 2-1 Nations Championship record, so there should overall be some satisfaction with their July efforts.
Changes are understandably inevitable amongst new management and Kiss has immediately opted to tread through uncharted waters this week by handing maiden starts to two Wallabies - lock Miles Amatosero and prop Aidan Ross - whilst centre Isaac Henry will become the nation’s 999th player should he come off the bench in a very hot and steamy Osaka, which has this week endured some weather dubbed ‘cruelly hot’ by the weather bureau. That’s sure to test out the endurance of an Australian side that scored only 31 of their 114 Nations Championship points after half-time.
Head-to-Head History
Japan have never defeated Australia from seven meetings, though they claim closer than ever at the most recent attempt when losing 19-15 on home soil last year. The last two, both this decade, were decided by single-digit margins.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Japan’s three games this year all fell short of the main total points handicap.
Japan scored the majority of their points before half-time in five of their last six matches.
Nine of Australia’s last ten games were won by the betting favourites.
Each of Australia’s last five matches produced at least 64 total points.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Japan’s Taira Main deserves his recall to the starting wing after scoring a try against Ireland as well as a double in his final club appearance of the season. Wallabies forward Josh Canham was one of the players of the Nations Championship series in June, scoring tries in two matches including a hat-trick against Italy.
Shōgo Nakano, Haruto Kida and Takuro Hojo are amongst those unavailable for Japan. Australia are without injured inside centre Len Ikitau as well as long-term absentees Will Skelton and Jake Gordon.
Click here to see the matchday squads for both teams.
Betting Analysis
Australia’s recent form and Japan’s porous defending against Ireland and France points towards this game producing over 60.5 total points.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
