Do Rafael Leao's figures from 2025/26 justify a big money move to the Premier League?

Milan's Rafa Leao during the UCL match against Feyenoord
Milan's Rafa Leao during the UCL match against FeyenoordROGERIO MOROTI / Alamy / Profimedia

After what was a hugely disappointing 2025/26 Serie A campaign for AC Milan, there were always going to be changes afoot.

Despite heading into the final day of the season in the Champions League qualifying positions, a 2-1 home defeat to Cagliari, coupled with Como's 4-1 away victory at Cremonese, saw Cesc Fabregas guide the minnows into the premier European competition at the expense of the Rossoneri, who will play in the Europa League instead.

Rafael Leao wants to leave Milan

Max Allegri's sacking not long afterwards was the least surprising news, and across the summer, it could be expected that first-team players would either be moved on by the club for financial reasons or the players themselves would seek pastures new from a sporting perspective.

The latter already seems to be the case for wide man Rafael Leao, who conducted an interview with Portuguese media recently where he thanked Milan for everything, before expressing a desire to play in a new league.

This is despite a reported release clause in the region of €175m, which only becomes active each July.

Given Leao's outburst, there's little chance of Milan getting anywhere close to that figure, and indeed, whatever benchmark the club set for the soon-to-be 27-year-old, potential interested parties are undoubtedly going to try to drive that price down, given the player's own desire to move on.

Premier League-bound?

At one time, the Portuguese player was heavily linked with a move to Barcelona; however, there's no realistic chance of that happening anytime soon, given that Raphinha doesn't appear to be going anywhere and Anthony Gordon has been brought in for competition on the left side. That's not forgetting Marcus Rashford, too, whose immediate future is still to be decided.

With Gordon having left a gaping hole down Newcastle's left, it goes without saying that the Magpies are already being tipped as one of the favourites for Leao's signature, with Italian media also suggesting that all of Man Utd, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool are keeping a watching brief at present to see how the situation develops.

Rafael Leao on the next step in his career
Rafael Leao on the next step in his careerOpta by Stats Perform

Suggestions that the two Turkish giants, Galatasaray and Fenerbahce, are potential destinations aren't without foundation, though a switch to the Saudi Pro League looks out of the question at this stage.

Whether it's the Premier League, Turkish top flight or elsewhere that Leao ends up in for the start of the 2026/27 campaign, what can a potential new employer expect for their money?

Top scorer for the Rossoneri

With 10 goals and three assists in 31 games in all competitions during the 2025/26 season, the player bettered the output of any other player, including Christian Pulisic and Christopher Nkunku.

Having pace to burn saw him make 12 fast breaks, too, which was at least eight more than anyone else in the Milan squad.

Only Nkunku's 61.54% shot accuracy and Luka Modric's 57.14% trumped Leao's 53.3%, whilst a 14.29% shot conversion statistic was only bettered by Nkunku (22.58%).

No one in the squad had more total shots than the wide man's 63, nor as many on target as his 24. 

In terms of his passing accuracy, though his 83.68% completion stat is far from shabby, the fact that he only made a total of 582 passes during the season is an indication of a tendency to spend large portions of matches on the periphery.

If the Premier League is indeed his dream destination, then he'll need to work much harder on this area of his game.

Defensive duties need to be worked on

A decent delivery from out wide would almost certainly be a prerequisite for a new employer, and fortunately, Leao excels in this regard. His 44% accuracy was the best of the entire Milan squad during 25/26.

With 200 one-on-one duels contested, the player can't be accused of not doing his bit in terms of his defensive duties, albeit his winning of just 94 of them gave him a success rate of 47%, significantly below some of his teammates.

Rafa Leao radar graphic - Serie A 2025/26
Rafa Leao radar graphic - Serie A 2025/26Opta by Stats Perform

43 ball recoveries is not up to the required standard when you consider someone like Luka Modric, 13 years Leao's senior, made 190, not to mention Leao only made six tackles in the entire campaign (winning three), which should embarrass him sufficiently to make a big change.

With a current salary reported to be in the region of €7m per year, that's a significant investment for any of the aforementioned clubs when also factoring in a transfer fee.

Rafael Leao's recent stats
Rafael Leao's recent statsFlashscore

The overriding question, then, is whether Leao justifies such a spend based on his all-round performances in the last 12 months?

There's no doubt that on his day, he terrorises defenders, but having a good game every now and then isn't going to cut it in the Premier League or elsewhere.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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