Match News and Current Form
The nine-game schedule for this tour immediately raised eyebrows upon its release when it was revealed that M&T Bank Stadium, home of NFL’s Baltimore Ravens, was on the list for a fourth international. It means that South Africa have one more opportunity to lose their number one world ranking to their fierce rivals, who they won’t meet again until the 2027 Rugby Championship, or to extend their formidable recent record of 15 wins from their last 16 internationals. The game takes place not far from where Rassie Erasmus made his debut as Springboks coach, losing 22-20 to Wales in Washington DC eight years ago.
Erasmus has made only two changes to his starting XV for this match, a surprisingly low turnover given the travel involved between matches. Damian Willemse is back to replace Cheslin Kolbe at fullback, whilst Morne van den Berg will be starting at scrumhalf. Cobus Reinach comes into what is otherwise an unchanged matchday 23 that the coach described as “very settled”.
New Zealand can still claim the honour of levelling the series in Baltimore, which would ultimately leave the question of which of these two nations is in better shape unanswered. A win here would also see them back on the top of World Rugby rankings by a very narrow margin, whilst the teams would share an innovative magnetic trophy that has been designed to split into two.
Dave Rennie’s selection policy for this match could hardly be different from that of his adversary. Rennie told reporters during the week that they “always planned for there to be a number of changes”, settling on nine alterations to his team. Whether that’s because the series is unwinnable or because they are treating the Baltimore leg a little less seriously remains to be seen, but there’ll be no complaints from tour captain Codie Taylor or fellow incoming players such as Peter Lakai, Patrick Tuipulotu, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby, Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell and Richie Mo’unga.
Head-to-Head History
South Africa now have a 6-2 record over New Zealand since the start of the 2023 Rugby World Cup final, the last time these sides met in neutral territory.
Hot Stats and Streaks
South Africa won the race to ten points in six of their eight games this year.
Eight of South Africa’s last 12 matches were under the main total points handicap.
The second half was the highest scoring half in ten of New Zealand’s last 14 matches.
Seven of New Zealand’s ten games this year also fell under the main total points spread.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
The southern hemisphere has produced only two men to score in five international matches this year: Springboks outside centre Jesse Kriel and All Blacks all-time top try scorer Will Jordan. Jordan recorded his team’s opening try twice this year and Kriel only once.
Click here to view the latest matchday squads.
Betting Analysis
With both teams leaning towards the ‘unders’ in the total points markets often of late, we anticipate under 58.5 total points here.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
