The women’s race starts off the elite weekend of racing in Wollongong and the men will round off the weekend on a course that suits a whole host of riders. Here we will look at who could take the rainbow jersey in Australia.
WOMEN’S ROAD RACE
Both courses - men’s and women’s - will use Mount Pleasant as the centrepiece of the races. The women’s course will cover 163.4 kilometres with six ascents of the climb that is 1.1 kilometres long with an average gradient of 8.6%.
Like most world championships, it will be an attritional race with a slow drip or riders losing contact and there is no team we can start this preview with other than the Dutch squad.
In the last 10 editions of the race, the European outfit have won six of them. In the last five years, they have won all of them other than the 2021 race, where Elisa Balsamo was crowned champion.
They are much feared for a reason and come to Australia with a wealth of power, options and experience. Two members of their squad have won world titles before - Marianne Vos, Annemiek van Vlueten - whilst they boast more talent like Ellen van Dijk, Shirin van Anrooij and Demi Vollering.
Their biggest issue will be team cohesion. With all of the above capable of winning, they have the issue of tripping each over each other, allowing the peloton to take advantage. There is also the issue of Van Vleuten’s fitness. She crashed - pretty inexplicably - at the midweek mixed team trial and broke her elbow. She is fit to start, but how much a broken elbow will hamper her, remains to be seen.
At the front of that list is Balsamo. The sprinter is the fastest woman on two wheels but she can climb as well. She has pedigree in one-day races with a punchy section - Gent-Wevelgem a case in point - and she also has enough teammates to try and keep the race together. If a large group comes to the finish together, Balsamo will be incredibly tough to beat.
Elsewhere, there are plenty of other nations and riders who want that to happen. At the top of that list will be the Australians with Grace Brown. Her power has certainly improved in the second half of the year, shown best in her second place at the time trial last weekend.
Her team is stacked with other riders who could also do well on Saturday - Alex Manly, Brodie Chapman - and will be one of the squads to watch.
Cecille Utrup Ludwig will be another contender. The Dane is a punchy rider, who will need to get away with a small group on Mount Pleasant. Others looking for a similar move will be Poland’s Katarzyna Niewiadoma, South African Ashleigh Moolman and Pfeiffer Georgi from Great Britain.
The women’s race will be tactically about the teams trying to keep it together and those trying to split it on the climb. Vos and Vollering will be at the forefront of that. There will also be teams - Italy and Belgium - who will do their best to take it to a sprint. How it plays out will be fascinating.
Favourites: Marianne Vos, Elisa Balsamo, Demi Vollering
Dark horses: Cecille Utrup Ludwig, Katarzyna Niewiadoma, Grace Brown
Surprise packages: Mavi Garcia, Arlenis Sierra, Juliette Labous
MEN’S ROAD RACE
At 266.9km, as ever, the men’s race is one of the longest days on the calendar and they look likely to face early crosswinds on their way to Wollongong.
That could create a lightning start as the break of normally smaller nations forms, but this could be infiltrated by the likes of Slovenia, France and the Netherlands - looking at you Taco van der Hoorn - as they try to get riders up the road to help later in the day.
As they hit the circuit, there are some tactical nuances that could play out across the race. France, Belgium and the Netherlands will be expected to control the race. France have the two-time reigning champion in Julian Alaphilippe, Belgium have Remco Evenepoel and Wout Van Aert, two riders who can win it very different ways, and the Dutch are putting their hopes onto Mathieu van der Poel.
The circuit with a flat sprint suits the powerful former cyclo-cross world champion down to the ground. He has done some good preparation with wins in Europe before flying to the other side of the world and has been hiding away since abandoning the Tour de France.
The Belgian races he took part in were not globally covered, giving him an under-the-radar vibe heading into the race. Unlike some of his rivals, he has had time to prepare for this final objective of the season and that could be a big factor.
However, the tactics of other teams may not allow Van Der Poel to ride the race he wants. France and Belgium - along with Spain, Italy, Great Britain and Colombia - will want a tough race that will get rid of the fast men. Look out for Fred Wright, Sergio Higuita and Alberto Bettiol to be up near the front when the going gets tough.
For Alaphilippe, question marks remain over his fitness given he suffered a punctured lung back in April and crashed heavily at the Vuelta a Espana, which saw him dislocate his shoulder. In the run-up to the championships, he has said he is not 100% and he is not the sole leader of the French outfit, so expect late arrival, Benoit Cosnefroy - winner of GP Cycliste de Quebec earlier in September - to have a say late on.
There is also the spectre of Tour de France champion Tadej Pogacar looming large over this race. The Slovenian may not have the strongest squad around him, but he has shown on numerous occasions on the biggest stages that he does not need a team around him to win.
He has also won monuments in the past, showing he has the legs to go the distance. His sprint finish is also improving and a win in Montreal ahead of the fast Van Aert showed he has to be taken seriously this weekend. Alongside Van Der Poel, Pogacar should be one of the favourites.
The likes of home team Australia as well as Eritrea, will want a sprint. Both teams have built teams around their top sprinter for a course like this in Michael Mathews and Biniam Girmay. They will need a slower race, with the favourites marking each other and allowing them to hitch a ride on the back of groups. Both can climb and have shown in the past they can sprint well after a long day in the saddle.
Both will be keeping a close eye on the forecast. With the current predicted wind, a tailwind will support them up the majority of the day’s climbing and could help them save energy in a race expected to last nearly seven hours. A top five for either sprinter would be a welcome finish given their competition on the road.
Favourites: Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar, Wout Van Aert
Dark horses: Remco Evenepoel, Benoit Cosnefroy, Andreas Leknessund
Surprise packages: Nielson Powless, Ivan Garcia Cortina, Ethan Hayter
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