Matteo Arnaldi has enjoyed steady upward progress since breaking through on the main tour a couple of years ago, but he is now facing a first real crisis, having dropped out of the top 70. How he tackles this challenge and responds will say a lot about his resilience and character.
He was seeded at ATP events at the start of the season but now finds himself competing in the qualifying stages of ATP Vienna, reflecting his decline over the past ten months due to a string of poor performances and results. He still holds a negative 2025 record of 22–24 and has not won consecutive matches since Washington in July.
Arnaldi showed encouraging signs by winning the qualifying rounds in Vienna over the weekend. If he can build on this momentum and secure some main-draw wins before the end of the year, there is still time to make up lost ground, especially since he has no points to defend for the rest of the season. He competed in only two events during the European indoor swing in 2024, losing in the opening round on both occasions.
Aleksandar Kovacevic might already be satisfied with his start to the European indoor swing. Entering this phase on the back of a five-match losing streak, he has turned things around by winning three of his last four indoor matches, reaching the second round in Stockholm and qualifying for the main draw in Vienna.
Indoor events have been particularly productive for the American this year, as he has accumulated an impressive 15 wins against just four losses over the past ten months. His best result came in Montpellier, where he reached his maiden ATP final.
Head-to-head: Matteo Arnaldi leads 2-0. A few months ago, Arnaldi would have been considered the clear favorite in this matchup, but his recent drop in form and series of poor performances makes the contest wide open for Aleksandar Kovacevic to claim his first win against the Italian. That said, neither player’s recent showings have been fully confidence-inspiring, making it challenging to pick a definitive favorite in this clash.
