Alex de Minaur is coming off another campaign that went largely according to expectations, maintaining his usual tour consistency by defeating players he was expected to beat and falling to a superior opponent in the end. He cruised past three underdogs to reach the semifinals in Vienna without dropping a set, before bowing out with a routine loss to Jannik Sinner.
A 12th straight loss to Jannik Sinner and another missed opportunity to contend for a title have not helped Alex de Minaur’s reputation as a top-10 player. However, his steady ability to win the matches he is expected to win continues to keep him relevant in the rankings. Sitting at No. 7 in the Race to Turin, about 500 points clear of ninth-placed Felix Auger-Aliassime, he remains in control of his qualification hopes for the ATP Finals.
The Paris Masters has historically been a favorable event for Alex de Minaur, and it will be interesting to see whether the new venue continues that trend. Even during seasons when he struggled to make deep runs at major tournaments, he managed to perform well here, reaching the quarterfinals in both 2023 and 2024. It was the first Masters event where he achieved multiple quarterfinal appearances.
Gabriel Diallo received a favorable draw for his debut campaign at the Paris Masters this week, facing Tallon Griekspoor, who had withdrawn from the Vienna quarterfinals last week due to injury. The Canadian took full advantage of his opponent’s limited fitness, delivering a composed straight-sets victory to open his account at the tournament, 6-3, 6-4.
The Canadian enjoyed the peak of his career during the grass swing, capturing his maiden ATP title in ’s-Hertogenbosch. However, that momentum has not translated beyond the summer, as he has failed to record back-to-back wins since the grass swing. Part of that drought can be attributed to a run of difficult draws that consistently pitted him against top-tier opponents in the early rounds, a trend that continues this week at the Paris Masters.
Between his title run in ’s-Hertogenbosch in June and now, Diallo has faced top-20 opponents six times and lost on every occasion, though he remained competitive in most of those matches. His overall career record against top-20 players currently stands at 4–13.
Head-to-head: Alex de Minaur leads 1-0. The Australian’s consistency and reliability against lower-ranked opponents are elite, and he can be trusted to get the job done against the talented but still inexperienced Gabriel Diallo.
