Whether you're into flutters, fantasy footy or anything inbetween, here are six predictions you ought to consider for this weekend's action.
Fremantle v Brisbane (Friday 8:35pm AEST)
The second leg of the Friday night double-header could be the most fascinating game of the lot.
The double chance is on the line for both teams who swapped positions last weekend after both being on different ends of nailbiting results, which we can’t look too deeply into knowing that they were each one accurate (or inaccurate) kick away from reshaping the top-eight.
The Dockers and Lions have played some tight encounters at Optus Stadium since its opening several years ago, with three of the last five matches decided by a margin of 15 points or less.
AFL betting apps are forecasting a similarly tight affair this weekend, giving the Lions a start of just 3.5 points as they look to expand upon their 3-1 record as outsiders this season.
Another thing that could point towards a close game here is Fremantle’s record in the ‘tri-bet’ market: win or lose, 45% of their games this season were decided by a margin of under 15.5 points, second only to North Melbourne’s 47%. It could be a solid play if you agree with the bookmakers’ assessment of an 85-81 win to Freo.
Currently on a four-game streak of kicking 3+ goals, Patrick Voss looks to be the goods in the goalscorer markets, especially when you can get close to even money on Unibet just for him to boot two!
Match prediction: Either team by under 15.5 points
Player prediction: Patrick Voss 2+ goals
Sydney v Geelong (Sunday 3:15pm AEST)
An interesting total points market has emerged in Sydney, where the SCG often drags down the totals due to its unique dimensions.
But we believe that Australian betting apps may have underestimated the scoring prowess of both teams here when setting a mark of 169.5 total points for a Sunday afternoon fixture set to take place in dry and mild late-winter weather.
Geelong are the second-most prolific scorers in the competition, averaging a hefty 110 points per game, which if met would mean the Swans would barely need to get close to their own average of 83 points to see this total clear comfortably.
On that front, the Swans have been doing quite well at the SCG: their previous game (68-54 v Essendon) is a writeoff as far as form and averages are concerned because of some dreadful weather that made ball handling immensely difficult, but back before that they put up scores of 84 (v North Melbourne), 94 (v Fremantle) and 96 in a narrow loss to the Bulldogs.
Only four of the ten games at the SCG this year touched 170+ points, but a couple were in horrendous conditions, and Geelong’s immense scoring capability - especially with Patrick Dangerfield back in the pocket - should help get this one over the line.
So too should the in-form Shannon Neale, who in five of his last six games has kicked at least three goals. The SCG does make big bags difficult, though, so taking the 2+ option at Unibet might not be a bad idea.
Match prediction: Over 169.5 total points
Player prediction: Shannon Neale 2+ goals
Western Bulldogs v West Coast (Sunday 4:40pm AEST)
We paid the price for breaking one of our golden rules of betting last week - taking a line of greater than minus 50 points for an away favourite - and we paid the ultimate price with Adelaide not even coming close to covering -60.5 against the Eagles.
It’s hopefully not a mistake we’ll be making again here. Australian bookmakers are again anticipating a bloodbath when the Eagles head to Marvel Stadium hoping to avoid embarrassment against the Western Bulldogs.
Yes, the numbers point towards it being ugly: the Bulldogs are the number one scorers in the competition, averaging 113.5 points per game, whilst the Eagles are the second-worst (69.2 per game) and are shipping nearly 110 points per match in return.
Further to that, the Dogs were triumphant by 76 points (106-30) the last time these sides met - way back in the first few rounds of 2024.
But anyone who watched just how wasteful and sloppy the Bulldogs were at the MCG last weekend would be reticent to back them in to cover such a big margin, particularly when the Eagles haven’t suffered a 75+ point loss since Round 4 despite playing better sides such as Fremantle, Collingwood and most recently Adelaide.
Nonetheless, there will be goals aplenty from the Bulldogs forwards and Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton will understandably be popular picks for big bags. The best prices we could find for either to kick at least four comes from Betr - both 1.70.
Match prediction: West Coast +74.5 points
Player prediction: Aaron Naughton 4+ goals
