Port Adelaide v Gold Coast (Friday 8:10pm AEST)
There will be sentimental scenes at the Adelaide Oval as Ken Hinkley takes charge of Port Adelaide for the 282nd and final time, having long ago announced a plan to transition out of the role, whilst club legend Travis Boak bows out just short of 400 appearances.
Hinkley took Port to eight finals campaigns in 13 seasons and this will be the only of the 13 where they failed to register ten wins even if they can go out on a high against the Suns.
But we’re expecting the Suns to break their 12-game losing streak at Adelaide Oval, having gone through what has been their best travelling season (W8, L5 away from Carrara) by far, though they’ll have quickly forgotten their last visit to this venue (losing to Adelaide by 61).
The Suns bounced back from their last two defeats in convincing fashion and will come up against a side that has by far the competition’s worst success rate at covering the main line (8-14) and are on a five-game losing streak during which they averaged just 60 points for and a hefty 116 against.
The emotion of the night won’t be enough to save them against a Suns side pursuing a big victory so that they can manage their end-of-season game against Essendon carefully, which is why we’ll be backing the Suns at the line.
Kane Farrell is averaging 20 possessions per game this year but has been improving that number throughout the season, accruing 20+ in seven of his last nine games despite Port winning only two of them.
Match prediction: Gold Coast -24.5 points
Player prediction: Kane Farrell 20+ disposals
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle (Sunday 3:15pm AEST)
The Bulldogs have home advantage in a potential knockout game against the Dockers but a two-day rest disadvantage after last week’s demolition of wooden spooners West Coast.
The most likely scenario by the time of the first bounce is that Luke Beveridge’s side will simply need to win this game by any margin to secure their place in their eighth finals of the coach’s tenure, for they will have a superior percentage to the Dockers irrespective of what happens here, and they would be safe even if the Suns were to win twice and leapfrog them into seventh.
Despite beginning the round in seventh, there is no scenario in which the Dockers can make the finals by losing here, so we’re anticipating that Fremantle will be giving their all with a spirited effort enough to at least cover the line of 21.5 with the bookies if not cause an upset victory, even despite losing their last game against the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium by 67 points.
Josh Treacy fell out of Coleman Medal contention pretty quickly after a strong opening month but has been back amongst the goals recently, kicking multiple goals in each of his last three appearances.
His outstanding goalkicking accuracy of 70% in 2025 holds him in good stead here, and if he follows that average he’ll need just three shots at goal to get us a return of 1.88 from Unibet for another 2+ goals.
Match prediction: Fremantle +21.5 points
Player prediction: Josh Treacy 2+ goals
Brisbane v Hawthorn (Sunday 7:20pm AEST)
The double chance is on the line for Brisbane and Hawthorn when the weekend ends with one of the most fascinating fixtures of the round.
The bookies have given Hawthorn a 7.5 point start at The Gabba after they charged up the ladder with eight wins from their last ten matches, and such has been their overachievement of late, they start this weekend with one of the league’s best success rates (64%, second only to Adelaide) at covering the line.
Their recent success is in part built on a foundation of solid starts, in which according to our friends at Ladbrokes the Hawks were the first to five goals in each of their last ten games.
Brisbane were scintillating when it mattered last week but consistency has eluded them right throughout the year, highlighted by their win rate of just 60% as a home favourite (league average: 76%), whilst since they conquered Hawthorn by 33 points in Round 11 they have won just four out of seven games against fellow finals contenders.
That’s perhaps why they’re not back in the top-two for the Premiership betting and we’re thinking the Hawks will be taking this close, potentially even creating a sixth consecutive head-to-head won by the outsiders of the day.
One-season Brisbane player Jack Gunston has already registered his best season ever in terms of goalkicking with 60, clearing 3+ goals in seven of his last eight matches. He’ll understandably be a popular pick with punters and full of motivation after re-committing to the club for 2026.
Match prediction: Hawthorn +7.5 points
Player prediction: Jack Gunston 3+ goals
