Adelaide v Hawthorn (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
This appears by far the tightest contest of the weekend, and so even has the competition been this season that it’s actually fathomable to think a match where the minor premiers are hosting the eighth-place finishers could have a line of just 1.5 points.
A lot of people have jumped very quickly off the Crows after their first final in eight years went disastrously, casting minds back to their only other loss from their last 14 matches - a very ugly 47-44 loss to the Hawks in Tasmania.
Their long-term form stacks up whilst they’ve opted to bolster their forward line with the recall of Josh Rachele, whilst they have a two-day rest advantage over the Hawks who had to travel to Sydney for what was an impressive win over the Giants.
Now they seek to rewrite history as the first team to win a finals match from eighth place over the minor premiers of the day.
Adelaide narrowly missed out on their 19th half-time lead of 2025 last week, with the previous 18 reaffirming why they have been the most successful club of the season: they’re sharp starters and are tough to catch up with.
We’ll be recommending backing Adelaide to lead at half-time, and if you are tipping the Crows to advance to the preliminary finals, you could double up the two for some extra value and take Adelaide for a half-time/full-time double.
For our player prop, Taylor Walker would not be pleased with his return of 39 goals from 22 games this year, but in the back end of the season he has almost always been good for a couple here and there, kicking 2-3 goals in eight of his last nine appearances.
Match prediction: Adelaide to lead at half-time
Value pick: Adelaide HT/FT double
Player prediction: Taylor Walker to kick 2+ goals
Brisbane v Gold Coast (Saturday, 7:35pm AEST)
It’s hard to believe that the Lions and Suns will play out a final before West Coast and Fremantle, the latter of whom have been in the AFL for more than 30 seasons now, but the Q-Clash will step up to a whole new level as these sides fight for the right to play Collingwood next weekend.
It was only a few weeks ago that the Suns demolished Brisbane to the tune of 66 points in Round 20, their biggest ever win over the Lions, whilst earlier in the season they kept Brisbane to just 66 points at The Gabba but could score just 49 in return.
That turned out to be an aberration from what was the fourth-best attacking unit (94.5 points per game) of the home and away season and the Suns showed against Fremantle last week that, despite their inexperience in finals, the big occasion doesn’t daunt them.
The Suns covered the pre-match line in eight of their last nine games against the reigning premier of the time, including a victory over Collingwood last year, and with Brisbane in a bit of stinky form in the back end of the year, Suns to cover +8.5 looks the goods.
For those who want to roll the dice on the Suns tearing Brisbane apart again, you could do worse than having something little on the Suns to lead after every quarter.
That’s because the Suns led at the end of every quarter in 12 of their 15 home and away wins, which was second only to Adelaide’s 13. In other words, they also win the ‘wire to wire’ market in 80% of matches that they take the points in. Odds better than four or even five dollars with some books for an 8.5 point outsider to do so is astonishing.
Cameron Rayner was, as we all know from seeing the controversial footage, very fortunate for two of the three goals he kicked against Geelong last week.
He spent far too long pinned in the goal square being annoyed by Mark O’Connor and we’re expecting Chris Fagan to force him to come into the contest more often and earlier if necessary, so we’ll confidently back him to be amongst the goalscorers once again having cracked 2+ goals in five of his last six games.
Match prediction: Gold Coast +8.5 points
Value pick: Gold Coast to lead after every quarter
Player prediction: Cam Rayner 2+ goals
