Collingwood v Hawthorn (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
This was already going to be our most confident play of the week before the news emerged on Tuesday that Collingwood coach Craig McRae was welcoming back five starters (Hill, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Moore and Schultz), which brought the Pies’ odds in by more than ten cents from as high as 1.72.
It means we’ve missed the best price available for the Collingwood victory, but we’re still of the strong belief that they’ll overrun a Hawthorn side that are really struggling against the best teams of the competition.
Whereas the Pies finished one kick short of adding Geelong to their 2025 scalps that include Adelaide, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs, the Hawks have lost their last three games against top-eight sides whilst their three-game winning streak in April-May were all over clubs 11th or lower at the start of Round 12.
Collingwood have been ahead at quarter-time in each of their last seven fixtures, averaging nearly 26 first quarter points compared to Hawthorn’s 16, so they have the form to take the early lead and hold onto it through to the finish. We’ll back them at the line rather than the half-time/full-time double just in case there’s a hiccup along the way.
Mabior Chol’s goalless effort last week means he presents slightly better value for 2+ goals despite clearing that threshold in seven out of 11 games this year, whilst his return of 2.3 in the last H2H demonstrates the opposition should be no problem.
Match prediction: Collingwood -8.5 points
Player prediction: Mabior Chol to kick 2+ goals
GWS Giants v Richmond (Saturday, 4:15pm AEST)
Many are expecting a bloodbath in western Sydney on Saturday afternoon when the eighth-placed Giants, alternating between victory and defeat for four weeks, set out to win consecutive games for the first time since early April.
44.5 points separated the sides at time of writing, even though the Giants have been underwhelming this year with a 3-3 record as favourites and despite Richmond’s eight losses this season being split evenly between the 1-39 and 40+ point margin brackets.
Richmond managed just 58 points last week against Essendon, a bottom half defence, and aren’t expected to fare much better against a Giants side conceding an average margin of 78 points a game and that kept Melbourne, Collingwood and West Coast all below that in victories earlier this season.
The Giants and Tigers are 14th and 15th respectively when it comes to total points this season (165.1 and 164.5), which is well below the 173.5 point mark set by AFL betting sites for this clash.
The likelihood of GWS winning big presents some opportunities in goalscorer markets and there’s one that caught our eye when studying for this match: Giants half-forward flanker Darcy Jones booted two goals in three separate ENGIE Stadium fixtures this season (d Collingwood, d West Coast, lost to Fremantle). Could be one at an interesting price.
Match prediction: Under 173.5 total points
Player prediction: Darcy Jones to kick 2+ goals
Melbourne v St Kilda (Sunday, 3:20pm AEST)
The red centre becomes centre stage for the first time this season as Melbourne continues its annual tradition of taking one home game to Alice Springs, which they have done for more than a decade now save for one COVID-forced year off.
After three scrappy affairs that had an average of just 115 total points, the Demons were blown out of the water 141-49 by Freo in Round 13 last year, so Dees fans in Alice Springs will be glad they’ve found some scintillating form in recent weeks including wins over Brisbane and the Dockers themselves.
Their opponents are heading in the complete opposite direction, losing six of their last seven games, including most concerningly to a couple of sides (West Coast and Carlton) who have had little to offer in 2025. That’s why, with an average score of just 71 points in their last six weeks, we believe they’ll struggle to get within 13 points of an in-form Melbourne.
Kozzie Pickett continues to drive Melbourne’s mid-season charge, kicking 16 goals in his six games of which they have won five.
He’s now the favourite to be Melbourne’s top goalscorer, so all of the value has been sucked out of the market, but those still keen to ride the wave will find some attractive odds in the market.
Match prediction: Melbourne -13.5 points
Player prediction: Kysaiah Pickett to kick 2+ goals
