There’ll be no shortage of jostling for positions in the final rounds of the home and away season with just one win separating third from seventh place at the start of this weekend.
Further down the standings, the Western Bulldogs and the Sydney Swans are almost on their last legs, with the latter one game behind the Bulldogs but in much more convincing form.
We’re expecting the Swans to play out a tight contest with their crosstown rivals in western Sydney on Friday night and have taken a particular interest in that game as well as two others, where our research points to some potential value in totals markets.
Sydney v GWS Giants (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
Sydney will be hoping that the 31st Battle of the Bridge is their sixth consecutive win over the GWS Giants, not least because other results going their way could see them end the weekend just one victory outside the eight.
It’s a tough task to claw back the deficit but five wins from their last six games have kept them in the hunt, even though it has been a soft run with four of those wins coming against current non-finalists.
With three top-eight opponents to come, they’ll need to improve upon their 33% win rate as outsiders this year (W3, L6), whilst their opponents are far from assured from victory with only 50% of their games this season won by the favourites of the day (league average: 74%).
Bookies are forecasting this to be one of the closest games of the round and we’re in agreement with the single digit line that was set.
That’s why we’ll hopefully be making some money by sitting on the fence and taking the odds of 1.82 on Betr for a final margin of under 24.5 points.
Toby Greene has returned to consistent goalkicking form in recent weeks, recording 2+ goals in his last four appearances, and should be determined to end a run of four straight H2Hs with 0-1 goals.
Match prediction: Either team by under 24.5 points
Player prediction: Toby Greene 2+ goals
Richmond v Collingwood (Sunday, 2:10pm AEST)
There are some very low totals expected this weekend such as only 148.5 points in the Showdown and just 154.5 at the MCG on Sunday afternoon between Richmond and Collingwood.
That comes as no surprise when considering that these two sides are in the bottom-three of the competition when it comes to total points per game, but even this total is abnormally low when compared with those - and the rain expected on Sunday is not likely to be a significant hindrance.
Games involving Collingwood are averaging 160 points this year and Richmond 159, whilst their combined points for and points against in 2025 stands at 156 and 163 respectively.
Five of the last six full length games between these sides (so excluding 2020) cleared 155+ total points, the most recent of which saw Collingwood triumph 93-67. The mark set for this game could just be a little too short.
We’ve dived into a custom player disposals market to take a haul of 22+ possessions for Richmond’s Sam Banks, who has cleared 22+ in six of his last nine games but got beyond the traditional 25+ only four times. It’s about playing the percentages.
Match prediction: Over 154.5 total points
Player prediction: Sam Banks 22+ disposals
St Kilda v Melbourne (Sunday, 3:15pm AEST)
Another total points target we’ll be attacking also comes on Sunday afternoon, where two of the worst form teams of the competition will be looking for some much needed relief.
The only victory St Kilda tasted from their last ten games came against next opponents Melbourne on the first day of June (91-63), with most of their losses coming against top-eight clubs albeit in addition to a pair of humiliating defeats to Carlton and West Coast.
Melbourne’s six losses from their last seven games began with the previous head-to-head and their only joy came against lowly North Melbourne.
These two clubs possess two of the six worst defences in the competition and that’s in part why St Kilda are fourth in the competition for total points per game (79.9 for and 93.7 against).
Revved up by a pair of under pressure coaches, both clubs are expected to attack this rare opportunity for victory in aggressive fashion and record what would be a fifth consecutive Saints game at Marvel Stadium to finish over the main total points handicap.
At least two of the goals should come from Melbourne forward Bayley Fritsch, who kicked 2-3 goals in nine of his last 13 games and presents at almost even money odds.
Match prediction: Over 168.5 total points
Player prediction: Bailey Fritsch 2+ goals
