The top-eight nations on the ICC ODI rankings (excluding host nation South Africa) as of 31 March 2027 will earn a place at the showcase event, and on that basis, fourth-placed Sri Lanka are in no danger.
Bangladesh are currently tenth, just one point behind the West Indies, which would send them to a global qualifying event with Zimbabwe, Ireland, Scotland and a host of regional qualifiers.
Match News and Current Form
Sri Lanka’s rise to fourth in the rankings has come courtesy of them playing the majority of their recent ODIs on home soil and taking full advantage from doing so. Either side of 2-1 series losses in both Bangladesh (March 2024) and New Zealand (January 2025), they have constructed a seven-series winning streak in Sri Lanka that includes conquering Australia, India, New Zealand, West Indies, Afghanistan (x2) and Zimbabwe.
With 13 wins, one tie and one loss from their last 15 completed ODIs in Sri Lanka, they could make a case to be the strongest home team in ODI cricket at present.
Bangladesh’s 2-1 win over Sri Lanka in 2024 is the only of their last six ODI bilateral series that they were triumphant in overall, with the five losses coming against New Zealand (x2), Afghanistan (x2) and the West Indies, the latter two of whom are well beneath Sri Lanka in the ODI rankings. Most recently, they were outclassed by both New Zealand and India in the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy, extending their losing streak in this format to six matches.
The team continues to go through a tumultuous period off the field after Najmul Hossain Shanto stepped down as Test captain after the recent Test series that Sri Lanka won 1-0. “I think three separate captains will be difficult for the team to deal with,” Shanto said during his announcement. Mehidy Hasan Miraz has been appointed as the new ODI captain, whilst Litton Das will continue to lead the T20I team.
Head-to-Head History
Bangladesh won their last two ODI series against Sri Lanka by 2-1 margins but both were in their home territory, and they have never won an ODI series in Sri Lanka from six attempts (D2, L4), the most recent of which was in 2019.
Sri Lanka holds a 14-2 overall H2H record at home to Bangladesh in this format, whilst it is 43-12 across all venues.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Sri Lanka won or tied their last seven ODIs (W6, T1) at the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo, batting first in each of the last five.
Six of the eight ODIs at the ground since the 2023 Asia Cup produced first innings scores of under 250 runs.
Only six of the last 23 opening partnerships in ODIs at the RPS went beyond 20 runs.
Dunith Wellalage took 2+ wickets in five of his last nine ODIs at the RPS.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Sri Lanka’s top order will be led by likely number three Kusal Mendis, who made 101 against Australia in their last ODI outing at this venue. He went past 1000 ODI runs at the RPS in his 23rd innings with what was his tenth 50+ score from those 23 starts. Captain Charith Asalanka is also an outstanding performer at this ground with three centuries and four fifties from his 20 RPS ODIs.
Bangladesh have five fast bowling options in their squad as it is expected that neither Nahid Rana nor Taskin Ahmed will play all three games. Not a single bowler took more than three wickets across their two ICC Champions Trophy games, so big runs will be needed. Look to Towhid Hridoy for those: he has 238 from six innings against Sri Lanka including 82 at this very ground in the 2023 Asia Cup.
Dilshan Madushanka has been recalled to replace the injured Lahiru Kumara whilst Sadeera Samarawickrama also returns to the squad. The retirements of Mahmudullah (all formats) and Mushfiqur Rahim (ODIs) and omission of Soumya Sarkar forced Bangladesh to make plenty of changes, including recalls to Litton Das, Mohammad Naim and Hasan Mahmud.
Betting Analysis
Sri Lanka’s home form of late has them well ahead of Bangladesh on paper so there’ll instead be plenty of interest in the player markets. Kusal Mendis to top score for Sri Lanka looks a sound pick, having done so for the country in four of their last ten ODIs at this venue.
