Key analysis: Can Canada spring a surprise in Qatar?

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Key analysis: Can Canada spring a surprise in Qatar?
Key analysis: Can Canada spring a surprise in Qatar?
Key analysis: Can Canada spring a surprise in Qatar?Profimedia
It has been a long time coming for Canada to return to the World Cup. In a country known for its dominance on the ice, the drought at the World Cup is not surprising. The men’s national team have qualified for the finals just once, finishing bottom of their group in 1986 without picking up a point or scoring a single goal. Now, in 2022, 36 years later, they are a different animal, heading to Qatar with players who are making waves in Europe, whilst others are important players in MLS.

Their route to the finals was long, playing 14 games in final qualification against other top CONCACAF contenders spread over nearly seven months. But they never looked in trouble, remaining unbeaten against their two biggest rivals - USA and Mexico - to top the group, taking 28 points to create history for a side on the up.

In charge is John Herdman (47). An Englishman, who has taken a very different route to the Canada national team job, leading the country’s women’s team for seven years and in the process becoming the only person to lead a nation to both the men’s and women’s World Cup finals. He has no club management experience, but his work in the international game suggests he has created a niche for himself where he can build a nation and a team willing to work hard for each other.

They head to Qatar drawn in Group F. Up against them is the tough trio of Morocco, 2018 finalists Croatia and Belgium. To qualify out of that group will be a huge achievement for this side, but they have enough weapons to cause shocks this November. 

Strengths

Their biggest assets are their players in attack. Alphonso Davies - Bayern Munich’s left-sided player - and Jonathan David, who plays his club football with Lille, will be the duo that Canada will have to lean on if they are to do well in Qatar.

Their biggest worry with the pair is fitness. Davies was reportedly back running at the start of November after a hamstring injury and there are question marks about how much of an impact he can make. He is in the squad, so Herdman must believe that he can play some part in the group stage. If he is fully fit, he will play further forward than he does for Bayern and given his speed and control of the ball, he will be a huge threat on the break. 

David is the other influential attacker who can use his experience in Europe to lead Canada this winter. In Ligue 1, he has been fantastic, scoring nine goals in 15 games this season with three assists. That form has been similar throughout his international career, netting 24 goals in 34 appearances. He will be key to Canada’s success.

Then there is Stephen Eustaquio, one of the most in-form players across Europe at the moment with five goal contributions in his last four games for Porto. His presence could make a real difference in their attacking line-up.

For Herdman, he is looking for the collective to pull them through: "I think right at the core is loyalty, trust and brotherhood. I think this is going to be an X-factor for Canada at this World Cup." 

Weaknesses

If the forwards have experience on the global stage, the defence does not. Only Richie Laryea played in a top-five league with most playing in Canada with Montreal in MLS or across Europe. Herdman has played a back three and a back four in the last year, suggesting he isn’t sure what will work best for him. In qualifying, they had the best defensive record in CONCACAF qualification, conceding seven goals along the way. 

However, their competition in Qatar is more formidable and that lack of quality at the back could be their downfall. Not only that, they haven’t played a European side since 2015, meaning that a lot of their backline have not been fully tested by sides that include Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. It is likely that they will deploy a back three against the bigger sides, moving to a back four when they need to get something out of the game. 

Ideal XI

M Borjan - A Johnston, S Vitoria, D Cornelius, S Adekugbe, R Larryea - A Hutchinson, S Eustaquio - L Miller, A Davies, J David

Herdman has attacking talent to call upon and it is a strong line-up if they can be defensively solid. Herdman has chopped and changed his starting line-up in recent games, so it’s difficult to know who he will trust for their opening game against Belgium on November 23. 

However, his front three is unlikely to change as is his midfield - they have pace and skill that has been proven before, now it will be time for them to step up on the international stage. 

Hottest contest

A record that may be broken during this World Cup could be by Atiba Hutchinson (39), who, if he plays, will become the oldest player from North or South America to take part in the competition, beating the record from 1958 set by Argentina’s Angel Labruna. His spot, though, is under threat from the likes of Samuel Piette, who has played in that position during qualification. He has also been an ever-present for CF Montreal in MLS - a willing runner, who is better defensively than going forward - he could provide fresh legs alongside Eustaquio, who will be more advanced than his midfield partner.

For Hutchinson, the narrative around him and the fact that this tournament caps off a career in Europe that feels like it has led to this point. Herdman will not have to make a decision with his head and heart as to what will be best for Canada.

Prediction

Alongside Wales, they are the only side that have not played in the tournament since the turn of the century. This 36-year wait gives them a relative free hit in Qatar, but they will want to pick up their first win in the tournament in their history as the first step.

To get out of the group will be challenging for a side that could be without their star player for the opening game. To get through to the knockouts, they will need to beat Morocco in their last game and hope to get points off their European opponents.

This will be a challenge and it’s likely they will bow out in the group stage, but they have players that can pull off a shock and make it difficult for the likes of Belgium and Croatia. For Canada, the 2026 World Cup on home soil is already on the horizon and this tournament is the perfect chance to gain experience and learn lessons ahead of their own tournament in four year’s time.  

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