NFL Christmas Day matchup picks: Chiefs-Broncos, Lions-Vikings, Cowboys-Commanders

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (2025)
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (2025)Jamie Squire/Getty Images

It's Christmas Day in the NFL to kickstart Week 17 and our experts are here to give everyone some gifts wrapped in the form of matchup predictions!

In the first game, the Dallas Cowboys are 8.5-point favourites over the Washington Commanders, with the over-under set at 50.5.

The Detroit Lions are 7.5-point favourites over the Minnesota Vikings in the mid-day game, with the over-under set at 44.5.

Then, to wrap up Christmas in a nice little divisional bow, the Denver Broncos are a whopping 13.5-point favourites over the Kansas City Chiefs, with the over-under set at 37.5. 

Cowboys @ Commanders

Eric: Cowboys 27-16 Commanders

It's cold and rainy over in Landover for this NFC East Christmas matchup with absolutely zero stakes other than pride and a higher draft pick

The Cowboys are clearly the better team, at least in this matchup. Usually, I'd see it as a high-scoring matchup. But in a divisional matchup with no stakes at all, we could see it be a lot more physical than most would think.

Miguel: Cowboys 40-15 Commanders

This NFC East classic is a must-see this Christmas. Although the Cowboys have sunk yet another season, they are expected to comfortably beat Washington to lick their wounds.

However, if Dallas is defeated, it may be time for the franchise to consider a change of direction, especially given how their season unfolded despite having a top-three offence all year long.

Henri: Cowboys 45-32 Commanders

Dallas blew its last chance at the postseason last week against the Chargers. The Commanders, on the other hand, had already been eliminated earlier.

This is a Christmas classic with a lot of passion, but the Cowboys should have the edge as the better team and could provide some real entertainment in a shootout to get everyone in the holiday spirit.

Lions @ Vikings

Eric: Lions 30-19 Vikings

The Lions are fighting for their playoff hopes these final two weeks of the season. If they lose to Minnesota here, they're officially done. 

So I expect Detroit to come out playing as if their lives depend on it. Plus, with Vikings starting QB J.J. McCarthy out for the game, it's hard to imagine the Vikings get much going on the offensive end, no matter how bad the Lions' secondary is.

Miguel: Lions 22-19 Vikings

The Lions have a very difficult road to the playoffs, as they need to win all their remaining games and hope for other external factors (Green Bay Packers losing out) to go their way to qualify, so they will have to give it their all against the Vikings.

For Minnesota, this divisional matchup could be an opportunity to secure a win that would make up for a season to forget. Nothing more than giving fans at least a Christmas win to be happy about.

Henri: Lions 34-17 Vikings

The Lions have only a slim chance of reaching the playoffs, but that also means it's still a must-win game for Detroit.

And that will undoubtedly motivate what is arguably the unluckiest franchise of recent decades to secure an easy victory against a weak Vikings squad.

Broncos @ Chiefs

Eric: Broncos 42-13 Chiefs

The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Tennessee Titans and now they're down to their third-string quarterback in Chris Oladokun. Even if this game is in Kansas City, they're a team playing with morale at a season-low right now. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos are going to be going all out as they'll try to lock up an AFC West title and, for their sake, find a way to still earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the end of the regular season. 

Another game where it's all stakes for one side and none for the other, except to play spoiler. Travis Kelce will (probably) be playing his last home game ever for the Chiefs. I just don't see in any way how his teammates will help end it all on a W.

Miguel: Broncos 28-12 Chiefs

Without Patrick Mahomes and with morale at rock bottom, there is little Kansas City can do against Denver, who need to win to stay in the fight for first place in the AFC.

Denver outclasses the Chiefs on every level at this point. And coming off a brutal loss to Jacksonville at home, it's time for the Broncos to let off that anger.

That's just the reality of it all. The Broncos will need the Los Angeles Chargers to lose this week to help claim an AFC West title, but I see it coming down to the final week for that.

Henri: Broncos 35-10 Chiefs

Playoffs without the Chiefs, a fact that will probably still amaze some people. But with the injuries that Kansas City now has to contend with, bad luck is literally sticking to their heels.

With Box Nix and the Broncos, on the other hand, everything is going well, and never before in the last few years has the Super Bowl been so close to returning to Denver. The Broncos will secure a statement victory in this prime-time game and keep their fans fired up.

21+ | COMPETENT REGULATOR EEEP | RISK OF ADDICTION & LOSS OF PROPERTY | KETHEA HELPLINE: 210 9237777 | PLAY RESPONSIBLY & SAFELY |

Do you want to withdraw your consent to display betting ads?
Yes, change settings