NFL Thursday night game picks: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield chased by Atlanta Falcons defenders during Week 1 of the 2025 NFL Season
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield chased by Atlanta Falcons defenders during Week 1 of the 2025 NFL SeasonKevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Our NFL experts give their picks for Week 15's Thursday night primetime game between the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)!

The Bucs are 4.5-point favourites over the Falcons with the over-under set at 44.5.

It'll be an NFC South rivalry battle with both teams wearing their throwbacks!

Now, let's take a look at who our experts picked before we break down the game.

Paul (129-63-1): Bucs 28-20 Falcons

The NFC South is one of the most unpredictable divisions in football, but with the division on the line for a flailing Buccaneers team, they have to win this Falcons matchup.

Drake London will not play, and with a 14-point win over the Saints being their only win since mid-October, the Bucs edge this one for me.

Give me Ko Kieft's Buccaneers!

Eric (128-64-1): Bucs 23-16 Falcons

The Bucs have looked like a shell of who they were in the first six weeks of the season, despite one of those wins being the season opener against the Falcons. They're 2-5 in their last seven, not much better than Atlanta's 1-6. 

Once looking like Super Bowl contenders are now barely staying alive for the division crown this season. Still, the Falcons have looked even worse. 

I expect Tampa to pull off a win on Thursday in the iconic creamsicles, but it won't be pretty, no matter who wins it. 

Miguel (121-71-1): Bucs 17-13 Falcons

I don’t have a clear winner for this match, but I think Baker Mayfield could be the deciding factor in tipping the balance in favour of the Buccaneers.

Despite that slight advantage in playmaking, there is a real chance that the Falcons could come away with the win, so I expect a very close match.

Ultimately, I'm giving Tampa Bay the edge.

Henri (112-81-1): Bucs 28-20 Falcons

The Falcons have great potential in their roster, but rarely manage to impress on both sides of the field.

The Bucs, on the other hand, are one of the most exciting teams in the NFC, capable of driving any defense to despair with the Mayfield-Egbuka connection.

However, that connection hasn't found its stride in recent weeks like it did at the beginning of the season.

But I believe it will be a close game with Tampa Bay coming out on top.

Game breakdown

This game has all the makings to be a brutal one to watch - or the complete opposite, given it's a division game with stakes. 

Neither team boasts a top-15 offence and the Falcons barely crack that (No. 14) on the defensive side of the ball after what was looking like one of the best defensive units in football the first half of the season. 

They'll be without both starting QB Michael Penix Jr. and star wide receiver Drake London, leaving veteran backup Kirk Cousins and running back Bijan Robinson having to step up in a major way. 

Atlanta hasn't produced more than 24 points in each of their last three games and have failed to reach 30 in their last nine. In their last five matchups, they've let up at least 27 points in four of those games.

But rookie EDGE man James Pearce Jr. has seemingly become one of the few bright sides for the Falcons.

Robinson is the main bright spot for the team as he leads the league in scrimmage yards with 1,683 (1,081 rushing). However, with Cousins under center, the Falcons are a brutal 1-5. 

He's coming off a two-interception, no-touchdown game against the Seahawks in which he only completed 15 of his 30 passes for 162 yards. Maybe he can turn it around against a Bucs pass defence that ranks 27th in the NFL this season.

As for the Bucs, what was looking like a Super Bowl team led by an MVP candidate in the first half of the season has become what looks like a sinking ship in the second half. 

Since their bye week, they've been out-gained in each of their past five games - except last week against the New Orleans Saints...which they lost. 

Their only win came against the Arizona Cardinals (20-17) and they barely scraped by then as the Cardinals had more first downs, yards, and fewer penalties - the difference being turnovers. 

After throwing just two interceptions in the team's first nine games of the season, Mayfield has thrown four in the last four weeks paired with four touchdowns. 

Surprisingly, their rushing attack has been their saving grace by putting up at least 120 yards on the ground in four of their last five games, including 202 against the Buffalo Bills

The Bucs defence ranks 22nd but they're seventh in forced turnovers (19) this season. They've forced at least one turnover in four of their last five games, seven in total. 

So if the Bucs want to keep their playoff hopes alive, and possibly their shot at winning the division, they have to force takeaways on Thursday night - even if they've lost four of their last five no matter how many turnovers they've forced. 

If they didn't force the two against the Cardinals, they could very well be on a five-game losing streak at this point. 

Injury reports

( LP = limited participant in practice / FP = full participant in practice / DNP = did not participate in practice )

For Tampa Bay, SirVocea Dennis (LB) and Rashad Wisdom (S) are both inactive for Thursday night's game against the Falcons. 

Wide receivers Mike Evans (LP) and Jalen McMillan (LP) are both questionable.

Cade Otton (LP) and Tykee Smith (LP) are both doubtful.

As mentioned before, wide receiver Drake London is the only inactive for the Falcons. 

Tight end Kyle Pitts (LP), edge rusher Jalon Walker (LP), defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus (LP), and David Onyemata (LP) are all questionable

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