Match News and Current Form
Without conceding a second-half point, England beat Australia 25-7 in their opening autumn international last weekend to make it eight wins in a row. This is quite the turnaround for Steve Borthwick’s side, who had won only five times across the whole of 2024 (L6), and the head coach was clear in his press conference on Thursday, maintaining “the focus for us this week is on improving on last weekend’s performance and continuing to develop”.
Seven changes have been made from the win at Twickenham last Saturday with Maro Itoje on the bench and Ellis Genge captaining from the start. Marcus Smith is recalled at full-back with his namesake Fin coming in at number ten after joining the action as a replacement in the 73rd minute against Australia.
Fiji are another side in good form, winning 11 of their last 14 matches (L3) including their last five. This will be their first game since September, when they beat Japan 33-27 in the Pacific Nations Cup final to lift the trophy for the second year in a row, and although they are currently ranked ninth, they are in the outside running for a top six World Rugby ranking place by the end of the month which would see them seeded for the 2027 Rugby World Cup (RWC).
There are three potential debutants in coach Mick Byrne’s squad: front rowers Tim Hoyt and Atu Sokobale alongside back row Pita Gus Sowakula who played two Tests for New Zealand in 2022 after representing Fiji ten years earlier in basketball at the 2012 FIBA Oceania Under-19 Championships!
Head-to-Head History
Fiji beat England 30-22 at Twickenham in August 2023, their solitary win from nine H2Hs, although England then won the next H2H 30-24 at the quarter-final stage of the RWC later that year.
Hot Stats and Streaks
England have scored between 22 and 35 points in three of the last four H2Hs.
England have scored exactly three second-half tries in each of their last two matches.
In four of their last five matches, Fiji scored the majority of their points in the first half.
Fiji have scored 5-18 points in their last four fixtures (L4) against teams currently ranked above them.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Ben Earl’s last three tries for his country have come at Twickenham, including the first of the game in last weekend’s victory. Simione Kuruvoli got Fiji’s final try in their win over England two years ago and also kicked four points in the 2023 RWC H2H defeat.
England are without Freddie Steward and Tom Roebuck through injury while Lekima Tagitagivalu, Iosefo Masi and Ponipate Loganimasi all had to withdraw from the Fiji squad last month.
Betting Analysis
Based on their recent points total against higher-ranked sides, we recommend backing Fiji to score 10-12 points on Saturday.
Author: Tom Penn
