Match News and Current Form
Andy Farrell has responded to Ireland’s 26-13 loss to the All Blacks in Chicago last week with a brutal axing of six players - four forwards and two backs - in addition to two forced changes through injury. Farrell has effectively put all 30-something fringe players on notice by handing a debut to 32-year-old Tom Farrell, who just two weeks ago signed a contract extension with Munster. Captain Caelan Doris returns along with backs Robbie Henshaw, Jacob Stockdale and scrum-half Craig Casey as part of the eight sweeping changes that Farrell has made.
Ireland begin a bumper three-week program of home matches here, returning to Aviva Stadium in Dublin for the first time since losing to France 42-27. Whilst the Irish were triumphant in an impressive seven of their nine games in Dublin since the start of last year, the wins certainly haven’t come easy, with narrow victories against the likes of England (27-22), Australia (22-19) and Argentina (22-19) in which they failed to cover the main bookmakers’ handicap. Farrell’s changes brought with it a lot of new and unsettled combinations, though that didn’t hamper them in big mid-year wins over Portugal (106-7) and Georgia (34-5) when their best players were on the Lions tour in Australia.
Japan had an abysmal performance last week when they were thrashed 61-7 by the Springboks in a game where they were expected to be outclassed but not humiliated. Now down to 13th in the World Rugby rankings beneath Italy, Georgia and Wales, Japan are at risk of being placed in the third band of the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw if they cannot get back into the top-12 by the end of November, meaning they would be drawn alongside a top-six nation and one from ranks 7-12, making quarter-finals qualification immensely difficult.
Head coach Eddie Jones was very frustrated with their profligacy and inability to defeat an underwhelming Australia 19-15 on home soil two starts back. That, combined with a second consecutive Pacific Nations Cup final loss, means the Brave Blossoms are on a three-game losing streak against all opposition. Punching above their weight has not been as easy as it was during their golden era six years ago: they hold a W1, L11 record against the current top-12 nations dating back to the end of the last Rugby World Cup.
Head-to-Head History
Ireland hold a commanding 11-1 H2H record against Japan after securing 39-31 and 60-5 wins in 2021, both in Dublin. Japan’s only victory came at the 2019 World Cup (19-12).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Ireland have an 88% win rate as pre-match favourites (W36, L5) since the start of 2021.
The opening try was converted in each of Ireland’s last 15 matches.
The team that scored the first try won only five of Japan’s nine matches this year.
Japan lost 90% of matches as betting outsiders (W3, L26) since the beginning of 2021.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Leinster back Tommy O’Brien should relish this step down in class, having recorded braces in Ireland’s mid-year demolitions of Portugal and Georgia. As Japan’s only try scorer last week, Yoshitaka Yazaki has found the line in two of his last three games for Japan’s senior or reserves national team.
Garry Ringrose and Stuart McCloskey are both unavailable for Ireland through injury, whilst Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw also have injury worries. Japan’s three changes were all tactical.
Betting Analysis
Ireland have shown no mercy against weaker opposition this year but bookmakers may be expecting a little too much from them. We’re anticipating under 65.5 total points.
Author: Aaron Murphy
