Match News and Current Form
Italy haven’t taken to the pitch since a three-game tour of southern Africa in which they thrashed hopeful World Cup qualifiers Namibia (73-6) before the Springboks figured them out, winning their two tests 42-24 and then 45-0. That was the first time since February 2024 that Italy had been held scoreless, and given that it was a team beset by key unavailabilities, it was probably a ‘forgive and forget’ type defeat. With the reintroduction of vital pairing Ange Capuozzo and Paolo Garbisi to the XV, both of whom missed the tour of South Africa, Italy already look a much stronger side.
The host side secured their first victory over Australia back in the autumn of 2022 and have since produced a frustrating string of inconsistent results from back-to-back wins over Scotland and Wales in the 2024 Six Nations Championship to a loss to Tier 2 Samoa just a few months later. Currently number ten in the world, Italy will be hoping to do enough to keep a top-12 position to ensure they’re in pot number two for the upcoming 2027 Rugby World Cup draw and almost certainly avoid more than one other Tier 1 nation in their pool.
Battle-hardened Australia have played more games than any other Tier 1 side this year because of the Lions tour and Rugby Championship, where they finished a disappointing third by losing four of their last five matches. Their two outings on this tour have both been underwhelming, scoring a total of just 26 points across two games, but head coach Joe Schmidt didn’t want to be too disappointed about being outclassed by England (25-7) at Twickenham last weekend, noting that the hosts had six Lions squad members on their bench.
Schmidt has made four changes to his starting XV as he regains Exeter Chiefs pair Len Ikitau and Tom Hooper after they missed last weekend’s match as it was outside the official international window. Ikitau has been given the week off with Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and Hunter Paisami backed to maintain their centres pairing, whilst the code-hopping former Wallaby Carter Gordon will make his first appearance at fly half since reversing his defection to rugby league.
Head-to-Head History
Italy’s thrilling victory at home was their only win over Australia from 28 attempts. Ten of the 12 other losses this century came with a double-digit margin.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The half-time leader won all eight of Italy’s games this year.
The first half was the highest scoring half in nine of Italy’s last ten matches.
Australia’s matches in 2025 are averaging just 43.7 total points per game - the lowest of all Tier 1 nations.
Australia lost the race to ten points in eight of their 12 games this year.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Returning Italy fullback Ange Capuozzo comes into this match in vintage tryscoring form, dotting down in each of his last four Top 14 games for Toulouse (albeit as a winger rather than a 15). Australia’s only try scorer last week was Western Force winger Harry Potter, who has scored in three of his eight international starts despite losing seven of them.
Italy captain Michele Lamaro is injured, as is back rower Sebastian Negri. Max Jorgensen and Dylan Pietsch are out through viral illness for Australia, whilst Carlo Tizzano could not recover from a knock.
Betting Analysis
Australia have struggled to rack up big scores this year and are no guarantees of winning, so we are leaning towards under 53.5 total points.
Author: Aaron Murphy
