Match News and Current Form
Australia picked up at least one win on each of the Lions’ three previous visits in 2013, 2001 and 1989 and they were just moments away from levelling this series at the MCG last Saturday night before the Lions completed their dramatic overturning of an 18-point deficit - the biggest of any Lions victory in history. The officiating of the latter parts of the contest attracted some unwanted attention during the fallout but doesn’t take anything away from the fact that the Wallabies were outplayed when it mattered most.
Their forward pack lost a lot of momentum when Will Skelton and Rob Valetini in particular were substituted out of the match at half-time and it is all the more concerning for the host nation that Valetini has again gone down with injury, particularly given just how much the Wallabies were dominated at the gainline when he missed the first game in Brisbane. Moving to Sydney won’t be of any assistance based on their recent history in the city, where they have lost ten of their last 12 matches.
This Lions squad is aiming to become the first since 1974 to go unbeaten in a Test series (W3 D1 v South Africa) and the first since 1927 to record a clean sweep, and head coach Andy Farrell is going all out to chase glory. Farrell has never been complacent about this tour, even recently describing the possibility of the Lions never touring Australia again as “insulting”, and last weekend’s shock is likely to strengthen their resolve.
Farrell’s opinion of the Wallabies pack is underlined by his decision to go with a 6-2 split on the bench this weekend as part of three changes he has made to his team, arguably the strongest of the tour so far. Scotland’s Blair Kinghorn replaces the omitted James Lowe whilst James Ryan has replaced Ollie Chessum in the starting XV and Ben Earl joins the bench as part of what the Lions hope will be their own bomb squad.
Head-to-Head History
Whilst the 27-19 score in Brisbane flattered the Wallabies, it nonetheless continued a pattern of mostly tight contests between these two teams.
The Lions won five of the eight H2Hs to take place this century and five of those eight were decided by a single-digit margin.
Hot Stats and Streaks
• Australia's last four matches saw them win one half of rugby and lose the other.
• Australia’s opening try came from a winger or fullback in five of their last seven games.
• Only one of the Lions’ eight games in Australia finished over the pre-match total points handicap.
• The Lions covered the main spread in just three (Force, Reds, AU-NZ XV) of their nine games this year.
Key Players to Watch
Fullback Tom Wright is one of those players to have recently opened the Wallabies’ account and has crossed the line in three of his last seven appearances for club or country. Last weekend, Huw Jones and Dan Sheehan became the third and fourth men to score tries in three games on this tour, so they could be in the mix to find the line here.
Betting Analysis
The weather forecast for Sydney looks abominable right throughout the day and evening and so points scoring is expected to be difficult. Under 42.5 total points is likely.
