Match News and Current Form
Not long after they exceeded expectations in a British & Irish Lions tour that repaid the debt of their governing body, Australia have for the most part carried their winning form into what could be their most successful Rugby Championship in years. Joe Schmidt has transformed the Wallabies into a rucking machine, much in the mould of his former Ireland, and Schmidt’s main aim ahead of this rematch with Argentina is a much more straightforward victory. The Wallabies have overcome sizable half-time deficits of 17 and 14 points in their respective wins of this Championship, with their third test win against the Lions remaining their only game of 2025 in which they won both halves.
They ought to have drawn a lot of confidence from pulling off their 86th-minute victory against Argentina, having backed themselves to go for the last gasp try. Several changes have been made by Schmidt, who has recalled Hunter Paisami to centre, handed Tane Edmed his first international start ahead of veteran James O’Connor, and rotated James Slipper and Jeremy Williams into the pack.
Argentinaare also searching far and wide for a consistent performance, having to go back to a 50-18 win over Italy in November 2024 for the last time they outscored a team in both halves. That has been the story of their recent history against Australia, not having trailed at half-time in any of their last six games against the Wallabies but going on to lose three of them following Angus Bell’s heroics in Townsville last week.
The Pumas’ major failings on this tour stem from a chronic inability to regularly win away from home, underlined by their five defeats from their last six Tests including three in a row. Head coach Felipe Contepomi has decided to stick with last week’s XV for the most part, save for a bit of tweaking such as a promotion to number eight for Joaquín Oviedo and a ster for Guido Petty in lock.
Head-to-Head History
2021 was the last time that the Wallabies defeated Argentina twice in the same calendar year, though that was also the last time they hosted the Pumas on both occasions. Argentina’s last win in Australia was just two years ago (34-31).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Australia covered the main pre-match spread in five of their seven games this year with last weekend being one of the two exceptions.
Australia failed to score 30+ points in eight of their last nine games.
Five of Argentina’s seven games this year finished under the pre-match total points handicap.
Argentina conceded the opening try in five of their seven games this year but won the other two.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Joseph Sua'ali'i has been in outstanding form for Australia this year, registering three tries and directly assisting another two across his last five internationals. He is level with New Zealand’s Samisoni Taukei’aho for most tries (three) at this Rugby Championship.
Juan Martín González has just one international try this season after racking up eight in his last seven games for Saracens, but with a 93% success rate of penetrating the gainline in his 14 carries this Rugby Championship, he’s not far off a second.
Tom Lynagh is absent from flyhalf through injury (hamstring) whilst centre Len Ikitau has a leg gash. Argentina’s changes were all tactical.
Betting Analysis
We’re anticipating under 53.5 total points, which has occurred in seven of the Wallabies’ last nine matches.
