Chiefs likely require a victory in Polokwane to realistically advance to the quarter-finals, and history suggests that is achievable, even though their opponents present a stern challenge.
AmaKhosi have played 35 home matches in African club competition, winning 24, drawing six and losing five.
Those defeats came against Raja Casablanca (2015) and ASEC Abidjan (2016) in the CAF Champions League, ASEC Abidjan again (2014) and ZESCO United (2018/19) in the CAF Confederation Cup, and Nchanga Rangers (2000) in the now-defunct CAF Cup.
Chiefs have won five of their eight home matches in the CAF Confederation Cup, with one draw, which came against Zamalek earlier this campaign. They have scored 14 goals and conceded six.
During those five wins, Chiefs have conceded only once, while both defeats were by 2-1 scorelines.
In the CAF Champions League, Chiefs have recorded 13 wins from 19 home matches (D4 L2), while in the CAF Cup Winners’ Cup they have won five of six home games, with one draw. Their two CAF Cup fixtures produced one win and one loss.
One of the most impressive aspects of Chiefs’ home record has been their ability to keep clean sheets, managing 21 shut-outs in those 35 matches, a rate of 60 per cent.
They may well need another clean sheet on Sunday if they are to overcome Al Masry.
Zamalek lead the group on eight points, followed by Al Masry and Chiefs, both on seven, with ZESCO United yet to register a point.
Chiefs host Al Masry on Sunday and realistically need a win, as they still have to travel to face Zamalek in the final round. A draw would leave them in third place going into that match, and it is unlikely ZESCO United will take points from either of their remaining fixtures.
The most realistic route to qualification appears to be a home victory on Sunday, preferably by a comfortable margin, followed by a draw away to Zamalek in the final group match.
Al Masry are expected to record a strong home win over ZESCO United in their final fixture, meaning goal difference and goals scored could favour the Egyptian side.
As a result, Chiefs need to collect more points than Al Masry from their remaining two matches.
