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The numbers that support the theory that Chelsea are on the way back under Enzo Maresca

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca during the UEFA Conference League match against Legia Warsaw
Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca during the UEFA Conference League match against Legia WarsawRafal Oleksiewicz / PA Images / Profimedia
Chelsea Football Club have certainly undergone quite the transformation since Clearlake Capital took the reins at Stamford Bridge back in May 2022.

The stability that appeared to exist under former owner Roman Abramovich has long since disappeared, with transfer windows now becoming an exercise in large scale player movement both in and out of the club.

​Todd Boehly and Behdad Egbali seemingly borne the brunt of supporter ire as the Blues stumbled from one disaster to the next, however, under Enzo Maresca, things do seem to be getting back to being on a more even keel.

On Thursday evening, a 3-0 win against Legia Warsaw in the first leg of their their UEFA Conference League quarter-final has made the second leg almost incidental.

Reece James and Maxi Oyedele during the UEFA Conference Leaque quarter-final match between Legia Warsaw and Chelsea
Reece James and Maxi Oyedele during the UEFA Conference Leaque quarter-final match between Legia Warsaw and Chelsea/IPA / Sipa Press / Profimedia

It was a ninth straight win in the competition for the west Londoners and they've scored in all nine to boot.

Whilst cup wins can never be considered a foregone conclusion it does appear that Chelsea are taking on all comers in the Conference League, and only the bravest soul would bet against them lifting the trophy at this stage.

It's clear from the way in which Chelsea are despatching teams that they're far too good for that - effectively third tier - European competition.

​In the Premier League, things are looking healthier than they have for ages too.

Chelsea's Champions League destiny in their own hands

Ahead of their weekend fixture against Ipswich, the Blues find themselves in fourth position, just four points behind Nottingham Forest in third. 

With seven games left, their immediate destiny is therefore in their own hands, and they'll need to be on it over the next few matches as they have five teams below them that are, at most, six points away.

A Europa League berth wouldn't necessarily be a disaster; however, Maresca's side belong in the Champions League.

Chelsea's first-team head coach Enzo Maresca
Chelsea's first-team head coach Enzo Maresca/IPA / Sipa Press / Profimedia

In the first season in charge under Clearlake (2022/23), Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter and Frank Lampard were tasked by the owners to bring the glory days back to the Bridge, but a 12th place finish on 44 points (45 behind title winners Man City) clearly wasn't in the hierarchy's thinking.

A sixth-place finish last season would seem to be much better, though Man United's FA Cup win meant that Chelsea were denied their spot in the Europa League and were instead handed a place in the Conference League.

Clearly, the wins in that tournament ensure a positive spin can be put on results and the club's position, but have Chelsea really improved that significantly since the beginning of Clearlake's tenure?

The turnover of players has been on an industrial scale, which may account for an initial lack of consistency. 

Kai Havertz playing for Chelsea against Real Madrid.
Kai Havertz playing for Chelsea against Real Madrid.pressinphoto / ddp USA / Profimedia

For example, none of Havertz, Sterling, Felix, Gallagher, Mount, Chilwell, Jorginho, Koulibaly, Broja, Pulisic, Kovacic, Aubameyang, Hudson-Odoi, Azpilicueta, Ziyech or Kepa remain at the club - and all were part of the first-team squad just two seasons ago.

​Whilst squad evolution is an accepted part of the cycle of football, that's still an awful lot of players being ushered out of the Stamford Bridge exit door.

From a financial perspective, Abramovich had spent €2.34bn on players during his 19-year tenure, but after taking into account the €1.01bn earned in transfer fees, that meant a net spend of €1.33bn.

Not taking into account any transfers in January 2025, the net spend under Clearlake - in essentially two seasons - was only €140m less.

Chelsea's net spend in two seasons is 10th highest in English football history

What's even starker is that Clearlake's net spend in the two and a half years leading up to this January's transfer window is the 10th highest in English football's entire history.

In that 22/23 team, Havertz top-scored with just seven goals in all competitions and was followed by Sterling on six and Felix with four goals.

The England international improved his output over the following season and plundered 16 goals to place him third overall behind Nico Jackson (17) and the brilliant Cole Palmer (25 goals), whilst Palmer is again topping the charts at present with 14 goals, followed by 12 for Christopher Nkunku and nine for Jackson.

Chelsea celebrate a goal against Legia Warsaw
Chelsea celebrate a goal against Legia WarsawRafal Oleksiewicz, PA Images / Alamy / Profimedia

Where the players of the club do seem to have excelled of late is in their control of the ball and their passing.

For example, in 22/23, Havertz played the most forward passes with 425, and yet with more than half a dozen games to play this season, Chelsea already have five players that have surpassed that total. 

Enzo Fernandez's 617 and Cole Palmer's 585 place them top in this particular metric and suggests that Maresca likes his teams to manipulate possession of the ball as much as possible.

The Argentinian also features highly in terms of the number of duels he's been involved in, however, no one comes close to Moises Caicedo and his 349 attempted duels with a 59.3% success rate.

Tosin Adarabioyo's 64.9% success in this regard is slightly misleading given that he's attempted less than half of the duels of his Ecuadorian teammate.

105 tackles attempted by Caicedo is also at least 36 more than anyone else in the current Chelsea squad, with Marc Cucurella coming closest to that figure. The Spaniard is one of the few players that have remained with the club since 22/23, a season when he took top spot in terms of tackles attempted with 72.

Yellow Card shown by match referee Chris Kavanagh to Chelsea's Pedro Neto during the Premier League match against Arsenal
Yellow Card shown by match referee Chris Kavanagh to Chelsea's Pedro Neto during the Premier League match against ArsenalČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Chris Foxwell

Being competitive is necessary at the elite level of course, but Maresca may want to look at the discipline of his players too.

With seven Premier League games left to play in 2024/25 and possibly four more in the Conference League, Chelsea are already up to 100 yellow cards for the season, significantly more than the 81 that were brandished in the 22/23 campaign.

502 shots attempted in 22/23, of which 165 were on target, has already been surpassed this season. 532 total attemps has seen 284 on target, which is a significant uplift in both instances.

Chelsea's Cole Palmer takes a shot on goal against Copenhagen
Chelsea's Cole Palmer takes a shot on goal against CopenhagenHenning Von Jagow / Actionplus / Profimedia

Shooting accuracy could be improved with the current squad's best exponents hovering around the upper 50s and in some cases into the 60% bracket. Back in 22/23, more players found themselves in that upper bracket including Raheem Sterling (63.3%) and Conor Gallagher (61.1%).

The numbers support the theory that Chelsea are improving

The numbers support the theory too.

In Enzo Maresca, the club appear to finally have the correct man in place to move them forward and who has the right temperament to ensure a steady ship even when navigating choppy waters.

Although he's currently taken charge of seven games less than Mauricio Pochettino, the Italian's 59.1% win percentage far exceeds the Argentinian's and, given the amount of games in this sample size, only Graham Potter of those other managers employed by Clearlake can be considered here, and he is well behind with just 38.7% of his games won.

97 goals scored and 47 conceded by Maresca's Chelsea compares favourably to Pochettino's 103 scored and 74 conceded. Potter's side managed a paltry 33 goals scored, whilst conceding 31.

Maresca's 11 away wins is also the most; his 15 home wins are just three shy of Poch, whilst both have won 26 games. Eight draws for the Italian is the same as Potter (11 for Poch), and Maresca's 10 losses is the best of all six managers since Clearlake took over.

Spin the narrative whichever way you wish, but even if you take into account Chelsea still have a way to go, the fact is that they are on the way back.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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