The Premier League saddled the reigning Premier League champions with 115 charges in breach of the league’s financial fair play rules something akin to ‘corporate fraud’.
These charges were brought against the club in February of 2023 with both parties fighting hard since then to achieve their outcome.
Speaking to Jan Denemark of Livesport Daily - Flashscore’s flagship podcast in the Czech Republic - Ellis has spent hours delving into the story for investigative YouTube site Search Party.
He believes that this could be a turning point in the league’s history with both parties unwilling to back down and settle for anything less than victory.
The date of the announcement for when we will find out the verdict is yet to be determined with some reports suggesting we could hear something as soon as March, but Ellis believes when we do, it will be a seismic shock for English football.
Speaking to the podcast, he explained: “There could be a very light punishment. I think Manchester City will almost certainly be found guilty of obstructing justice.
“They've fought these investigations tooth and nail. They've not given any ground.
“That's probably going to be a monetary fine. The big question is, will they be deducted points and how many points? As we saw with punishments for Nottingham Forest and Everton last year, a precedent was set. They mildly broke some FFP rules.”
The punishments handed down, if City are found guilty, could be huge in a footballing sense. Since the podcast was recorded, reports have started circling of an up-to-60-point deduction for Pep Guardiola’s side. This would see them relegated to the second tier of English football - the Championship.
Ellis added: “What Manchester City did is much more extreme than what they (Nottingham Forest and Everton) did. You got to imagine points are going to be deducted. The big question is, do Manchester City get expelled from the Premier League? That is on the table at the moment.”
“I don't think there is a case similar to this. It's hard to say what will happen. If they're booted down to the championship, that's a huge deal.
“It's a huge loss for a club like Manchester City. At the same time, you've got to imagine they're back in the Premier League the very next year. They're a good team.”
Any ruling will set a precedent for a league that has been told by the UK government to regulate itself in a stricter sense. A verdict in favour of Manchester City could harm the league further than just allowing them to stay in the league.
'Tool of soft power'
Ellis, who used to work for investigative journalism site Vox, surmised: “This is the Premier League trying to convince the government that the Premier League can do it themselves - 'we can get a handle on this' - so there are political stakes as well.
“You have the country of Abu Dhabi. They're a huge investment trade partner with the UK. The embassies are talking about this case. This is a big deal. Manchester City can be viewed as a tool of soft power for Abu Dhabi. It's in jeopardy.
He went on: “We have countries buying football clubs. I had a source tell me Manchester City can be viewed as Abu Dhabi or the UAE's national football club. Their national club isn't super relevant in worldwide competitions but Manchester City is their team, and they're going to use the advantage they have as long as it's allowed, or in this case maybe not allowed.
"And so it's a watershed moment. Is this going to be the new norm? Or are clubs going to lock down or take back control?.. I personally don't see how there's not a heavy points deduction from Manchester City.”
Inflated deals
The purchasing of Manchester City happened in 2008, when Sheikh Mansoor, the now vice-president of the UAE, bought the football club and since then, with the backing of the nation's sovereign fund has won eight Premier League titles and one Champions League.
Speaking about the relationship between City and the UAE royal family, Ellis said: “If you're a small middling club, how do you get better without taking out loans? You've got to get players.
“What basically appears to have been done is, instead of just spending money on players, which goes down on the books as spending, they would sign these huge sponsorship deals with companies. Etihad Airlines, other Abu Dhabi-linked companies, would pay these suspiciously large prices to have their name on the jersey or the name on the stadium.
“There's evidence that these sponsorship deals were inflated. These companies would only pay a little bit, but the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Abu Dhabi would reimburse them and pay the rest.
“Again, Abu Dhabi and the ownership is still spending that much money, but they're routing it through companies so that it shows up on the books as revenue. Then revenue creates more room so they can spend more."
“To me, it's very obvious. It's not super hidden. The people I talked to in the video all say these are Abu Dhabi-linked companies.
“The contracts, as soon as they were being signed, people were suspicious already. A decade ago, they were suspicious. These are huge.”
Whatever happens, the verdict will cause ramifications that will ripple around the world of football.
Manchester City have denied all claims since they were brought upon them, saying in a statement: “We welcome the review of this matter… to impartially consider the comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of its position.”
To hear more from Ellis, watch the full interview with Livesport Daily now.
