Why West Ham United face uphill battle to get three vital points at Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham's Micky van de Ven chases West Ham's Jarrod Bowen
Tottenham's Micky van de Ven chases West Ham's Jarrod BowenShaun Brooks / Actionplus / Profimedia

For many West Ham fans, the London derby against Tottenham Hotspur represents their biggest fixture of the season.

Though they've never been direct neighbours, and the Lilywhites' traditional derby is against North London rivals, Arsenal, the Hammers faithful are always up for the trip to N17 or when welcoming Spurs to the London Stadium.

A win for West Ham is vital

On this occasion, both teams are in dire need of the points, and both managers will want to see a performance of real quality, if for no other reason than it might extend their own tenures.

Nuno Espirito Santo isn't proving to be the saviour that many associated with the East London outfit hoped, and as West Ham head into battle, they do so in the knowledge that even a win will keep them at least four points adrift of a Nottingham Forest side up against the Gunners.

The Hammers lost to Forest in the league last time out and previously to Wolves in the fixture before that. This match represents the third in a row where Nuno will have faced a team he has previously managed, and he'll certainly not want to make it a hat-trick of losses.

He has won three of his five games against the North Londoners and will be hanging onto that little slice of positivity with dear life.

Just four home wins for Spurs in the last 24 games

He'll understand that though there's plenty of time left in the season for the Irons to turn the corner, once the games begin to be ticked off and confidence continues to suffer, the gap between them and the teams above them starts to look much worse with each passing week.

West Ham are winless in their last 10 English top-flight matches (D4 L6), which is their longest run without a win since December 2006 and March 2007. On that occasion, a 4-3 loss to Tottenham in their 11th game of that run was the final match before West Ham eventually put three points on the board.

Tottenham vs West Ham - Recent head-to-head results
Tottenham vs West Ham - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Thomas Frank might not be in as imminent danger of the sack; however, the way that Spurs have been playing under the Dane has been sterile to say the least.

One win in their last seven in all competitions isn't good enough, and 14th position on 27 points isn't where Tottenham should be, whilst just four wins in their last 24 Premier League home games (D6 L14) won't fill anyone with confidence either.

Only five points behind sixth place

Spurs' two home wins this season represent their lowest ever after 10 league matches played, and they've won only one of their last 21 league games when conceding at least once (D6 L14).

However, they do remain just five points from sixth place, and if they can get a couple of decent results, all of a sudden, everything looks brighter.

Tottenham and West Ham's current Premier League positions
Tottenham and West Ham's current Premier League positionsFlashscore

Given that the visitors to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have lost all six of their London derbies this season, and six of Spurs' seven Premier League victories this campaign have been to nil, the hosts could well be smiling at full-time.

Only Fulham (13 - from August 2018 to November 2020) and Queens Park Rangers (seven - from August 1995 to January 1996) have lost seven or more consecutive London derbies in the Premier League, so Nuno has the weight of history on his shoulders in more ways than one.

Corners could decide this one

One aspect of the game the Portuguese has to address beforehand is his defence's position at set-pieces. No team has conceded more goals (12) from a corner in 2025/26 than West Ham, and no team has scored more from them than Tottenham (11).

Whether they play a part in Frank's thinking or not, Spurs have the opportunity to do the league double over the Hammers for the first time since 2019/20.

In order to stop that from happening, the visitors have to improve upon their recent H2H record against the Lilywhites, winning just one of the last eight in the league (D3 L4).

It isn't clear at this stage if Lucas Paqueta will play at any point for the Hammers either. Despite being a talisman for the East Londoners, the Brazilian has apparently made it clear that he wants to return home and is trying to engineer a move to Flamengo in this window.

Both teams suffering from absences to key men

Were he not to play any part, and officially, he has a back injury, that could significantly impact West Ham's ability to take even a point from this game.

Lukasz Fabianksi and Konstantinos Mavropanos are definitely out for the Irons, El Hadji Malick Diouf is still away on AFCON duty and Matheus Fernandes faces a late fitness test.

Taty Castellanos is likely to keep his place up front after scoring the winner in the FA Cup tie against QPR.

Tottenham vs West Ham - Live win probability
Tottenham vs West Ham - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

For the hosts, Mo Kudus won't play against his previous employers, whilst he's joined on the sidelines by Richarlison and Rodrigo Bentancur.

James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski are long-term injury absences, whilst Cristian Romero is suspended, so new signing Conor Gallagher is expected to make an immediate debut.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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