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How Georgia could spring a major surprise against Spain in their World Cup qualifier

Spanish players during a training session ahead of the match against Georgia
Spanish players during a training session ahead of the match against GeorgiaRodrigo Jimenez / EPA / Profimedia

Saturday evening sees Spain take on Georgia in the third of their Group E qualifying matches for the 2026 World Cup.

La Roja will head into the match as the overwhelming favourites, given their recent and more general records.

Spain on fire in World Cup qualifying

In their two games played in Group E so far, Luis de la Fuente's side have won both, scoring nine goals (six against Turkey and three against Bulgaria) and conceding none.

Further, during normal time in fixtures in this calendar year, the Spaniards remain unbeaten.

A loss on penalties to Portugal in the Nations League final after a 2-2 draw is the only blot on their 2025 copybook.

In fact, in the 72 games played since 2020, both competitively and friendlies, La Roja have only lost on seven separate occasions, and then only by the odd goal in six of those games.

In that run, the only competitive fixture where the opposition scored twice without conceding came the last time that Spain lost a competitive match, which was against Scotland in March 2023 during Euro 2024 qualifying at Hampden Park (2-0).

Head-to-head record favours La Roja

Since that game, the Spanish have lost just one more match, a friendly against Colombia, drawn six (including five Nations League games, three of which ended in penalty shoot-outs), and won 24, with only France and Switzerland scoring more than one goal in response during those victories.

That's not to mention that the head-to-head results against Georgia strongly favour the Spaniards, too. 

Of the eight previous occasions that they've played each other, La Roja have won seven - including the last five - whilst Georgia have managed a solitary friendly victory back in 2016.

Spain vs Georgia (recent head-to-head results)
Spain vs Georgia (recent head-to-head results)Flashscore

The odds are therefore stacked against the Georgians. However, they'll be keen to take advantage of the fact that Lamine Yamal hasn't recovered sufficiently well from an injury to be able to take part in this international break, a decision that Barcelona made, which seemed to irk De la Fuente.

Real Madrid's Dani Carvajal is also missing, along with Nico Williams, Rodri, Gavi, Dean Huijsen and Fabian Ruiz.

Were all of those mentioned fit and are ready to play, the likelihood is that they would all make the starting lineup, meaning that De la Fuente is not only going to have to shuffle his pack but potentially change and adapt his usual system to cope with the challenge.

Georgia in impressive form themselves

The Spaniards have plenty of depth in their squad and already have the likes of Pedri playing at the very top of his game. Mikel Oyarzabal, too, has been a brilliant nine for De la Fuente and provided three assists in the game against Turkey recently. 

Georgia will look to an impressive performance in a 3-0 win over Bulgaria last time out as an indication that they will at least be able to compete with the Group E leaders.

Indeed, four wins in their last six games have seen them score 16 goals, giving them a real sense of belief that they'll be able to give a good account of themselves at the very least, and perhaps be ready to take advantage should Spain's complacency get the better of them.

Could they spring one of the biggest surprises of this round of World Cup qualifying matches?

Kvaratskhelia might be risked despite injury

Willy Sagnol's main issue is that talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia remains sidelined, though he has been included in the squad against the wishes of his club, Paris Saint-Germain.

Whilst the in-form Georges Mikautadze - who already has three goals and one assist in seven games for high-flying LaLiga outfit Villarreal - could create problems, dynamic midfielder Nika Gagnidze will play as if his life depended on it, and Zuriko Davitashvili won't give an inch to his direct opponent, losing the spark and creativity of a fit Kvaratskhelia is almost certain to be the biggest hindrance to Georgia's attempts to win this game.

Giorgi Chakvetadze is definitely out too, as he still hasn't recovered from a stress fracture in his foot from back in April.

In any event, under Sagnol, the squad have prided themselves on being compact in midfield and getting forward as swiftly as possible, whilst remaining as defensively solid as possible.

Low block is Georgia's best hope of a shock result

Georgia have never really gone in for a five-man back line either, and whilst that would go against the grain for the manager, it could be the best chance they have of getting at least a point out of the match.

That's because La Roja have seemingly always struggled more against teams that try and employ the low block.

What would be a worry for the Georgians is that they just don't have the capabilities to defend in that manner for an entire 90 minutes and against an expected attacking onslaught.

The smart money would therefore be on Spain to continue their 100 per cent start to qualification, but as we've seen so many times before with football matches, anything is possible with the right mindset and work ethic.

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