Sabalenka vs Rybakina - 09:30 CET
News and Form
Aryna Sabalenka did not allow a hindrance call early in the match to get to her head and instead powered past Elina Svitolina, 6-2, 6-3, into her fourth consecutive Australian Open final. At 76 minutes, it was one of her quickest wins of the tournament. The world No. 1 has now won 26 of her last 27 matches in Melbourne.
Sabalenka not only improves to 11-0 in the new season but has won all 11 matches in straight sets. After a perfect week out in Brisbane, where she defended the title, the Belarusian has faced three tiebreaks in Melbourne so far (against Anastasia Potapova and Victoria Mboko) but has not been pushed to a decider.
Elena Rybakina returns to the Australian Open final after defeating sixth seed Jessica Pegula, 6-3, 7-6, on Thursday. The semi-final would have gone to the deciding set had the Kazakh not saved two set-points in the tiebreak. It was her second consecutive top-10 win after knocking out Iga Swiatek, 7-5, 6-1.
Not to be outdone by Sabalenka, Rybakina has also reached the final without losing a single set in the first six rounds. In fact, she did not drop more than seven games in a match until her semi-final encounter. The ever-so consistent world No. 5 has now won 19 of her last 20 matches, which include titles in Ningbo and the WTA Finals.
Head-to-Head
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 8-6 but has lost six of their last 10 encounters. The pair met four times in the 2025 season alone; Sabalenka won in Berlin and Wuhan, while Rybakina prevailed in Cincinnati and at the WTA Finals.
Stats & Facts
This is the first Grand Slam final since 2008 Wimbledon in which both finalists have not lost a set throughout the tournament.
Sabalenka has won four of her seven Grand Slam finals (and two of three in Melbourne), including beating Amanda Anisimova in the latest one at the 2025 US Open.
However, Sabalenka did end up losing two of her three Grand Slam finals in 2025 overall, falling to Madison Keys at the Australian Open and Coco Gauff at Roland-Garros.
Rybakina defeated Ons Jabeur in her first Grand Slam final at the 2022 Wimbledon, but was not so fortunate against Sabalenka at the 2023 Australian Open.
Rybakina has eight career wins over reigning world No. 1 players, half of which have come against Sabalenka.
Betting Analysis
It is evident from the results of their 2025 encounters that both players have the capacity to emerge as the champion. Sabalenka does have the marginal advantage owing to her superior track record at the tournament, but then again, it did not prevent her from losing the 2025 final.
Sabalenka in 2026
Best results: Brisbane (title)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Brisbane (title)
Record: 11-0
Record in the last 10 matches: 10-0
Record on outdoor hard courts: 11-0
Record against top 10: 1-0 (career 56-42)
Record in Grand Slam finals: 0-0 (career 4-3)
Record in finals: 1-0 (career 22-19)
Sabalenka at the Australian Open
Career record: 34-6
Best result: Title (2023 & 2024)
Last year's result: Final
Record in finals: 2-1
Preparation: Brisbane (title)
Road to the final: Rakotomanga Rajaonah (6-4, 6-1), Zhuoxuan Bai (6-3, 6-1), Potapova (7-6, 7-6), (17) Mboko (6-1, 7-6), (29) Jovic (6-3, 6-0), (12) Svitolina (6-2, 6-3)
Rybakina in 2026
Best results: Australian Open (final)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (final)
Record: 8-1
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on outdoor hard courts: 8-1
Record against top 10: 2-0 (career 33-27)
Record in Grand Slam finals: 0-0 (career 1-1)
Record in finals: 0-0 (career 11-11)
Rybakina at the Australian Open
Career record: 20-6
Best result: Final (2023, 2026)
Last year's result: Round of 16
Record in finals: 0-1
Preparation: Brisbane (quarter-finals)
Road to the final: Juvan (6-4, 6-3), Gracheva (7-5, 6-2), Valentova (6-2, 6-3), (21) Mertens (6-1, 6-3), (2) Swiatek (7-5, 6-1), (6) Pegula (6-3, 7-6)
