Fatigued former champion Svitolina faces another American as Pegula eyes first Dubai title

Ondřej Jirásek

Elina Svitolina could win Dubai for the third time.FRANCOIS NEL / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

The prestigious WTA 1000 event in Dubai will crown its champion on Saturday. Jessica Pegula can claim her first title at this tournament and seeks revenge on Elina Svitolina, who spoiled an all-American final. The Ukrainian, meanwhile, goes for her third triumph at this venue but will likely enter the title match at a significant disadvantage.

Svitolina vs Pegula - 16:00 CET

Match news and form

Jessica Pegula reached the Dubai final for the first time in her career after playing back-to-back three-set matches over the last couple of days. After knocking out Varvara Gracheva and Iva Jovic in straight sets, the American had to get down to business against Clara Tauson and Amanda Anisimova.

Nevertheless, Pegula consolidated her brisk start to the season, improving her record to 12-2 in three tournaments this year and extending her streak of posting semi-final-or-better results to seven.

She has not won a title since Bad Homburg in the 2025 grass-court season, but that has not stopped her from playing solid tennis all this time.

Elina Svitolina was at the end of her rope after playing a hectic affair against Coco Gauff in the semi-finals. The match had numerous twists and turns, including a 28-point second-set tiebreak and a 20-point game in the third set, before the Ukrainian prevailed 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 after wasting four match points in the second set.

While she gained a bye in the first round and Paula Badosa’s retirement in the second, the former world No. 3 has been pushed into deciding sets in all three completed matches, starting against Belinda Bencic and lucky loser Antonia Ruzic. This is the price to improve her season win-loss to 15-2, which already includes a title.

Head-to-head

Pegula leads 5-3. Five of their meetings have gone to the deciding set. The pair met in two WTA 1000 events last year, with the American winning in Doha but Svitolina narrowing the gap in Indian Wells.

Stats & facts

Svitolina has spent over seven hours on court to win her last three rounds, but has been rewarded with a chance to win the Dubai title for the third time (2017–18) in as many final appearances.

The Ukrainian holds a 19-4 career record in finals, including beating Xinyu Wang in Auckland last month for her first hard-court title since August 2021. She is 4-0 in WTA 1000 finals but hasn’t won such a title since 2018.

Pegula has a poorer record in finals relative to Svitolina. She has lost 11 of 20 championship matches to date, including the latest one to Gauff in Wuhan a few months ago.

The American settled for runner-up finishes in eight of 10 finals when she faced a top-10 player. Further, she has lost her last three WTA 1000 finals.

Betting analysis

Both players enter the final after battling through consecutive three-set matches, making recovery a key factor. Svitolina owns a strong record in finals, including in Dubai, but she has spent considerably more time on court this week, which could leave her with less in the tank.

Pegula’s finals record has been inconsistent, yet after so many deep runs, this is the perfect opportunity to convert consistency into silverware, which points toward Pegula lifting the title.