French Open 2026 women's draw analysis: Sabalenka eyeing maiden title, Swiatek facing battle

Sabalenka is targeting a maiden title in Paris
Sabalenka is targeting a maiden title in ParisDavid Winter / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

With just a few days until the start of the French Open, the women's draw is absolutely tantalising. It is hard to pinpoint one clear favourite, with so many top players truly in the mix. World number one Aryna Sabalenka is eyeing a maiden Grand Slam title on the dirt, while Coco Gauff is looking to defend her crown. But can four-time champion Iga Swiatek rediscover her touch?

As a result, let's analyse which players have been given easier routes to the final, and who will have to navigate choppy waters. You can also check out our analysis of the men's draw here.

First quarter

Seeds: Aryna Sabalenka (1), Jessica Pegula (5), Victoria Mboko (9), Naomi Osaka (16), Iva Jovic (17), Madison Keys (19), Diana Shnaider (25), Cristina Bucsa (31)

Sabalenka has yet to win a Grand Slam off the hard courts, and after falling in an extremely tight final to Coco Gauff here last year, she will be desperate to go one step further. And she should be pretty happy with her section of the draw, but she does have a tricky first-round match against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.

Osaka in round four represents a heavyweight match-up, but the Japanese superstar has never convinced on clay. Overall, I see her cruising to the quarters, and I think either Pegula or Mboko will join her.

By the way, Jovic vs Alexandra Eala is a fantastic first-rounder in this section!

Prediction: Sabalenka to beat Pegula in the quarter-finals

Sabalenka is just an absolute banker at Slams. You know she is going to get to the semi-finals at a minimum. I expect Pegula to reach just her second French Open quarter-final, but ultimately fall short.

Second quarter

Seeds: Coco Gauff (4), Amanda Anisimova (6), Linda Noskova (12), Ekaterina Alexandrova (14), Anna Kalinskaya (22), Elise Mertens (23), Anastasia Potapova (28), Ann Li (30)

Gauff has also ended up in the easier half of the draw, and she will be pleased with her quarter. Taylor Townsend is a fun first-round match, while in-form Potapova is a potential banana skin in round three. But otherwise, it is nothing too complicated for the defending champion.

Meanwhile, Anisimova is a bit of an unknown quantity. A French Open semi-finalist in 2019 and a Wimbledon and US Open finalist last year, she is a potential Grand Slam champion and a huge threat. However, she hasn't really gathered much momentum in 2026, due to injuries and a lack of form.

Prediction: Gauff to beat Noskova in the quarter-finals

I am fully backing Gauff to reach the semi-finals, no matter her quarter-final opponent, but I am a bit torn on who that will be. If Anisimova finds her touch, I'd probably lean to her. But because that is up in the air, I'll go with Noskova. Regardless, the American will be too good for either.

Third quarter

Seeds: Iga Swiatek (3), Elina Svitolina (7), Belinda Bencic (11), Marta Kostyuk (15), Clara Tauson (21), Leylah Fernandez (24), Jelena Ostapenko (29), Wang Xinyu (32)

Now we are into the more difficult half, and in particular, the nightmare quarter for Queen of Clay, Swiatek. The Pole hasn't been at her best in a while, and she hasn't really been able to use her favourite surface as a banker for results. However, she started to look a bit better in Rome under new coach Francisco Roig, yet the major issue remains her draw.

Ostapenko, who has been a diabolical match-up for Swiatek and holds a 6-0 head-to-head record against her, could await in the third round. Recent WTA 1000 champions Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina are also lurking. Could it be trickier?

Svitolina's run to win the title in Rome recently was remarkable
Svitolina's run to win the title in Rome recently was remarkableREUTERS / Claudia Greco / Opta by StatsPerform

Prediction: Svitolina to beat Kostyuk in the quarter-finals

I would probably have Swiatek in the semis under normal circumstances, but Ostapenko in the third round isn't normal circumstances. The Latvian has her number. So I think it'll be an all-Ukrainian quarter-final, with Svitolina, who will have the French support behind her as she is married to crowd favourite Gael Monfils, riding the momentum into the last four.

Fourth quarter

Seeds: Elena Rybakina (2), Mirra Andreeva (8), Karolina Muchova (10), Jasmine Paolini (13), Sorana Cirstea (18), Liudmila Samsonova (20), Hailey Baptiste (26), Marie Bouzkova (27) 

Rybakina is the big favourite to make it out of this quarter, but there are a hell of a lot of players in the section playing some really good tennis.

Rybakina practicing at Roland Garos
Rybakina practicing at Roland GarosDPPI, DPPI Media / Alamy / Profimedia

Andreeva has been superb on the clay and reached the quarters last year. Muchova is a French Open finalist, Cirstea is playing the best stuff of her career at 36, and Baptiste really announced herself after beating Sabalenka in Madrid recently.

Prediction: Rybakina to beat Andreeva in the quarter-finals

This would be a fantastic quarter-final, and I could see it being a bit of a slugfest. But I am going to go with Australian Open champion Rybakina, who has arguably been the best player in the world this year. She has looked a bit fatigued of late due to playing in almost every big tournament, but I think she should be coming into this tournament relatively fresh after a bit of a break. She has never made it past the quarters, so this would be her best run.

Semi-final and final predictions

Semi-final 1: Gauff to beat Sabalenka

Semi-final 2: Rybakina to beat Svitolina

Final: Gauff to beat Rybakina

I am actually going to go with Gauff retaining her crown, purely because of how impressed I was with her in Rome, even though she lost in the final to Svitolina.

Clay is her best surface, and she is just so hard to put away because of her freakish athleticism and retrieval skills. Also, she seems to have tidied up her serve and forehand - on clay at least.

She beat Sabalenka in last year's final, and the Belarusian hates playing against her because of Gauff's resilience and ability to get the ball back in play. I think she will do it again.

Gauff won the title in 2025
Gauff won the title in 2025Photo by THOMAS PADILLA / POOL / AFP

In the other semi, I genuinely do think it could go either way. But Rybakina's top level - and I am assuming she is playing at this level by this point - should be too much for Svitolina, making her first French Open final in the process.

This match-up would be absolutely fascinating because they have only played each other once, and that was all the way back in 2022, so there is basically nothing to go off of.

It would be incredible if Rybakina could start the year with two majors, and her first in Paris. But, purely for her tenacity and willpower on this surface, I think Gauff will go back-to-back!

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