New king of Indian Wells assured as Medvedev seeks Sinner scalp after Alcaraz upset

Ondřej Jirásek

Daniil Medvedev will face Jannik Sinner in the Indian Wells final on SundayMATTHEW STOCKMAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

On Sunday, a new champion of the 'fifth Grand Slam' will be crowned. Former world number ones Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will battle it out for the title in the Californian desert. While the Italian enters as the favourite, the Russian is in phenomenal form and will look to follow up on his sensational upset of world number one Carlos Alcaraz.

Medvedev vs Sinner - 22:00 CET

Match news and form

Daniil Medvedev produced a statement performance in the semi-finals, defeating world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in a blockbuster clash between a player on an eight-match winning streak and another who had begun the 2026 season unbeaten. The Russian delivered a level reminiscent of the form that once took him to world number one and a hard-court Grand Slam title. It was also a timely reminder of his capabilities at a moment when much of the tennis world has been focused on teenagers and newcomers to break the Alcaraz–Sinner duopoly at the top.

Some of Medvedev’s career patterns are difficult to make sense of. For instance, despite winning 22 tour-level titles, he went years without winning the same event twice, a streak he only recently ended in Dubai last month. Here is another statistic he will look to improve in Sunday’s title clash: while he owns an impressive 8-8 record against world number ones, he has struggled badly against world number twos, holding a 1-9 record, with his only win coming against Rafael Nadal at the 2020 ATP Finals.

Jannik Sinner's straight-sets win over Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals at Indian Wells accomplished two important things. It ended his unusual drought of not reaching a final this year and also secured his first-ever appearance in the Indian Wells Masters final after back-to-back semi-final exits in 2023 and 2024.

There is an added boost to his title chances as well, with Alcaraz no longer standing in his path. Alcaraz had denied him at this venue during the past two visits and was also responsible for his defeats in both of his North American hard-court finals last year, in Cincinnati and at the US Open.

The Italian desperately needs a title after a shaky start to the season that has dented his confidence and widened the gap between him and his main rival, Alcaraz. An opportunity like this in a high-profile event is something he likely would not have expected at the start of the tournament, and given his recent track record, he should certainly fancy his chances of taking it.

For context, he has not lost a tour-level final to a player not named Alcaraz since the 2023 ATP Finals, when Novak Djokovic beat him in straight sets. Since then, he has faced other opponents 12 times in title matches and won every one of them.

Head-to-head

Sinner leads this head-to-head 8-7. This rivalry has unfolded in two distinct phases. Medvedev controlled the early stretch, winning the first six meetings in a row. However, after Sinner’s dramatic rise in the second half of the 2023 season, the momentum has completely shifted.

Since then, Sinner has won eight of their nine encounters. The numbers might have tilted even further in Sinner’s favour had they met last year, but Medvedev did not face him at all during the season.

Stats & facts

• Medvedev is currently on a nine-match winning streak and has not dropped a set in any of those matches.

• The Russian has already won two titles this year and is now targeting his first Masters title since Rome 2023.

• Medvedev holds a 6-4 record in Masters finals, with three of those four losses coming against players ranked world number two.

• Sinner holds a 5-4 record in Masters-level finals, with one of those losses coming against Medvedev in Miami 2023.

• The Italian won the most recent Masters tournament in Paris 2025, where he also went through the entire tournament without dropping a set.

Betting analysis

Medvedev has proven in the past that he can beat Sinner, having once won six straight matches in this rivalry. His recent struggles have been more mental, coinciding with Sinner’s rise and Medvedev’s dip in form and confidence. However, Medvedev now looks close to his best again and arrives with strong belief after his win over Alcaraz. With that momentum, he enters this final as a genuine contender for the title.

Medvedev appears to have more pathways to win this matchup. He can prevail in straight sets or through a three-set battle, especially in day conditions where his superior endurance becomes a key factor. Sinner, by contrast, likely needs to win in straight sets, which looks difficult given Medvedev’s nine-match streak without dropping a set. The value therefore leans toward Medvedev to win a set or even as an outright pick.