Match news and form
Aryna Sabalenka is now a step away from defending her crown at the Miami Open after defeating former finalist Elena Rybakina, 6-4, 6-3, in the semi-finals, needing no more than 79 minutes. It was a much simpler affair than Indian Wells a fortnight ago, where she had to save a championship point against the Kazakh.
The world No. 1 has refused to lose a set in any of her five rounds, with the greatest resistance coming against Ann Li in the opening match (7-6, 6-4). She has since dismissed Caty McNally, Qinwen Zheng, and Hailey Baptiste with ease, extending her streak of reaching the final in each of her last five outings.
Sabalenka, who is the reigning US Open champion, consolidated her place as the top-ranked player with a title in Brisbane and a runner-up finish at the Australian Open at the start of this year. After skipping the Middle East swing, she returned to the winners’ circle in Indian Wells for her tenth career WTA 1000 title.
Coco Gauff was expecting a titanic battle when she entered the semi-finals after playing four consecutive three-set matches. Instead, she consolidated her career-wide dominance over Karolina Muchova and crushed the Czech, 6-1, 6-1, in under 90 minutes, moving up to 6-0 in their head-to-head record.
The American was having a tricky season in the run-up to Miami. While she had reached the quarter-final at the Australian Open and the semi-final in Dubai, she had faced early exits in Doha and Indian Wells. In fact, she was forced to retire in Indian Wells due to a concerning nerve issue in her left arm.
Gauff began the campaign with comeback wins over Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Alycia Parks, and later took the scenic route against Sorana Cirstea and Belinda Bencic as well. Nevertheless, she will be pleased to have finally moved past the fourth round of the Miami Open for the first time in her career.
Head-to-head
The match-up is tied at 6-6.
The pair met three times in the previous season; they split honours in the finals in Madrid and Roland-Garros (Gauff won the latter), but Sabalenka fought back at the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Stats & facts
- Sabalenka has won 10 of 14 career finals at the WTA 1000 level, including five of the last six and each of the last three.
- Sabalenka has a 5-9 record whenever facing a top-five player in a final.
- Gauff has lost 11 of 15 career encounters with reigning world No. 1 players, with half of the wins coming against Sabalenka.
- Gauff is 11-3 in tour-level finals, including winning the latest ones at Roland-Garros and Wuhan last year.
Betting analysis
Apart from the fact that there is nothing to separate the pair in the head-to-head record, half of their encounters have gone to the deciding set; this consolidates the fact that these two players are well-suited competitors for one another.
Gauff won their last encounter on US soil in the 2023 US Open final, but the world No. 1 Sabalenka is the clear favourite given her standout form.
Sabalenka in 2026
Best results: Indian Wells, Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Indian Wells, Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)
Record: 22-1
Record in the last 10 matches: 10-0
Record on outdoor hard courts: 22-1
Record against top 10: 4-1 (career 59-43)
Record in WTA 1000 finals: 1-0 (career 10-4)
Record in finals: 2-1 (career 23-20)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (final)
Sabalenka at the Miami Open
Career record: 19-6
Best result: Title (2025)
Last year's result: Title
Record in finals: 1-0
Preparation: Indian Wells (title)
Road to the final: Bye, Li (7-6, 6-4), McNally (6-4, 6-2), Qinwen Zheng (6-3, 6-4), Baptiste (6-4, 6-4), Rybakina (6-4, 6-3)
Gauff in 2026
Best results: Miami (final)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Miami (final)
Record: 16-5
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on outdoor hard courts: 16-5
Record against top 10: 1-1 (career 34-37)
Record in WTA 1000 finals: 0-0 (career 3-2)
Record in finals: 0-0 (career 11-3)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (quarter-finals)
Gauff at the Miami Open
Career record: 13-6
Best result: Final (2026)
Last year's result: round of 16
Record in finals: 0-0
Preparation: Indian Wells (round of 32)
Road to the final: Bye, Cocciaretto (3-6, 6-4, 6-3), Parks (3-6, 6-0, 6-1), Cirstea (6-4, 3-6, 6-2), Bencic (6-3, 1-6, 6-3), Muchova (6-1, 6-1)
