It’s top versus bottom in UEFA Nations League (UNL) Group C2 as Latvia host early pace-setters Montenegro.
Match News and Current Form
It has been a disappointing start to this UNL campaign for Latvia, who have failed to score while picking up only one point from their opening two matches. Although they beat Gibraltar, ranked #202 in the world, twice in their relegation play-off in March, it is now six UNL group stage games without a victory (D2, L4) for the 11 Wolves. Those two wins earlier in the year are very much the exception, with no other victories across their last 15 fixtures (D5, L8) at any venue, while at home Paolo Nicolato’s side have found the back of the net in just one of their last four games and only beaten Gibraltar from October 2024 onwards (D4, L5)!
Montenegro have taken maximum points from their opening two games against Cyprus and Armenia, but it has been far from an easy ride for Mirko Vučinić’s side after they had to come from behind in the first fixture, netting the winner from the 86th minute onwards in both matches. Unbeaten across their last four games (W3, D1), and with only two defeats (both at home) from their last nine (W6, D1), Montenegro haven't lost an away game since October last year (W3, D1) and another victory on Friday in Riga will put them in an extremely strong position to make an immediate return to League B.
Head-to-Head History
After four attempts, Latvia are yet to beat Montenegro (D2, L2) and the only previous meeting in Riga was won by the visitors.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Latvia have scored a first-half goal in only one of their last nine games.
Latvia have picked up fewer yellow cards than their opponents in four of their last five home fixtures.
Six of Montenegro’s last seven victories came by a single-goal margin.
Seven of Montenegro’s last nine games saw both teams score.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
After making five saves against Cyprus, Rihards Matrevics is targeting a fourth consecutive home clean sheet. He will have to be alert throughout though, with Montenegro’s Nikola Krstović in excellent form after three goal contributions (G2, A1) in the last two matches and five (G4, A1) from his last five international appearances, although none have been the opening goal of the game.
Neither side appear to have any new availability issues.
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Betting Analysis
With late goals for Montenegro against Cyprus and Armenia, combined with Latvia’s poor goal-scoring returns, backing Montenegro to be the last team to score looks like a smart approach.
Author: Tom Penn
