Entering the round of 16 against a fatigued Learner Tien, Daniil Medvedev hoped to take advantage of his fresher condition and avoid the kind of painful defeats Tien had inflicted on him twice earlier this year. Medvedev found himself in familiar territory, squandering a set and a break lead and being pushed to a decider. Fortunately, for the sake of his mental state, he managed to overcome both the frustration and physical cramps to narrowly claim the final set, winning 7–6, 6–7, 6–4.
The Russian has shown a notable improvement in both performance and attitude since arriving in China last month, but his hopes of enjoying a successful, fulfilling campaign ended in the semifinals in Beijing last week at the hands of Learner Tien. For that reason, he must be delighted to have Tien out of the way now, allowing him to fully focus on securing a big result, possibly a title, that would trigger a resurgence and help make up for the ground he has lost in the rankings over the past nine months.
While overcoming the Tien hurdle is a significant morale boost, the challenge only intensifies as he now faces a top-10 opponent. He has a strong track record against top players, particularly on hard courts, but 2025 has been a struggle, with just two wins against top-10 opponents. In fact, he has only had four opportunities to face them this year, highlighting a period of underperformance and a confidence deficit over the past ten months.
Among players currently active at the Shanghai Masters, Medvedev and Novak Djokovic are the only ones with both Masters titles and former world No. 1 status, giving him something to look up to and draw inspiration from. The question is whether he can replicate that level this year, given his struggles. He is a two-time former quarterfinalist at Shanghai, including one run in 2019 that culminated in a title, when he did not drop a set throughout the tournament.
Alex de Minaur has been an extremely consistent player this year and now has something to show on paper. Following his latest win over Nuno Borges in the round of 16 at the Shanghai Masters, he notched his 50th victory of the season. He is only the third player in 2025 to reach this milestone, after Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz, and the first Australian to do so since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004.
Because of his consistency this year and his current high ranking, expectations on the Australian continue to rise each week, and he is doing a commendable job of meeting them. This marks his maiden quarterfinal at the Shanghai Masters and his second consecutive quarterfinal in the Asian swing, having reached the same stage in Beijing a few days ago, where he advanced via a retirement win over Jakub Mensik.
De Minaur has really turned up the heat since the tour transitioned back to hard courts from grass a couple of months ago, reaching at least the quarterfinals in five of the six tournaments he entered, all at ATP 500 level or higher. This return to top-level form has not only strengthened his place inside the top 10 but also positioned him well to qualify for the ATP Finals for the second consecutive year.
While the ATP Race heats up at this stage of the season, it can take a backseat for De Minaur, whose focus should now be on chasing his elusive first high-profile title. He appears well-positioned, as other players are struggling with the Shanghai conditions, and he is capable of outlasting them. In his career, he holds a modest 2–4 record in Masters quarterfinals and a 13–24 record against top-20 players in these events.
Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev leads 7–4. For years, De Minaur has often been an easy target for top players, including Medvedev, and he is still a work in progress when it comes to overcoming this hurdle. Circumstances in terms of form, confidence, and fatigue currently favor the Australian, giving him a strong opportunity to secure a rare win over a top player. The remaining challenge will be whether he can overcome the mental hurdles he has historically faced in these matchups.
