2026 World Cup Power Rankings: Norway and Japan dark horses as a clear top four emerges

Updated
Erling Haaland and Norway celebrate qualifying
Erling Haaland and Norway celebrate qualifying marco iacobucci / Alamy / Profimedia / Flashscore

The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest edition of the tournament yet, featuring 48 nations, but which of them are most likely to win it?

After each international break, we'll be ranking the 10 sides that look in the best shape to reign supreme in the United States, Canada and Mexico based on their form and the strength of their squad.

Here's how things stand with under a year to go.

10. Japan (new entry)

Japan moved to the brink of the top 10 after beating Brazil in the last international break and now take Ecuador's place in it thanks to further wins over Ghana and Bolivia.

Former player Keisuke Honda has insisted they have the potential to become world champions, and while that may be a little far-fetched, they're certainly a team to watch with some serious quality all over the pitch and just two defeats in their last 23.

9. The Netherlands

It was a poor start to the final round of qualifying for the Dutch, who were held to a 1-1 draw by Poland, but they followed that up with a 4-0 win over Lithuania to seal their place at the World Cup.

With two draws against Poland and a big scare in the first match with Lithuania, it was far from the best of qualifying campaigns for Oranje, but they got the job done, and with the amount of world-class players in their defence and midfield especially, they're in the mix.

8. Morocco (-1)

Morocco's form
Morocco's formFlashscore

A 1-0 victory in a friendly with Mozambique may not have got the blood pumping, but two wins from two in the November international break mean Morocco's first-team squad - a solely domestic-based group contested the African Nations Championship - have won a remarkable 18 matches in a row.

They have tournament pedigree too, with the squad not all that different from the one that made the semis of the 2022 World Cup, and they'll get more when they host the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations.

Could the Atlas Lions become Africa's first World Cup winners? Well, not many sides from the continent have been as good as this one.

7. Norway (+1)

Norway have qualified for their first World Cup since 1998, and boy did they do it in style, with a 4-1 drubbing of Italy in Milan to confirm their status as a top side.

Across their eight qualifiers, they scored 37 goals - at least nine more than anyone else in Europe - and conceded just five. When you factor in that they had the Italians in their group, it's hard to argue against them having the best qualifying campaign of anyone.

With arguably the best player in their ranks in the form of Erling Haaland and plenty of further attacking quality surrounding the striker, they're dark horses at the very least.

6. Brazil

Brazil's recent results
Brazil's recent resultsFlashscore

Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil once again flattered to deceive in their most recent matches, following a 2-0 win over Senegal up with a 1-1 draw with Tunisia. They've now won just four of their eight matches under the Italian, despite not facing any nations ranked inside the world's top 15.

A side full of world-class players led by Carlo Ancelotti is always going to be a contender at any tournament, but the Selecao have a lot of room for improvement.

5. Portugal

Portugal began the final round of qualifiers with a 2-0 loss to Ireland, but after Cristiano Ronaldo was sent off in that match, they went and beat Armenia 9-1 in his absence, which begs the question: are they better off without him?

Whether his likely suspension for the opening matches of the World Cup is a blessing or a disguise, Roberto Martinez's side continue to look like genuine world-beaters in one match and less than the sum of their parts in the next.

They have the quality, but can they find the consistency?

4. France

The top four in the world seem to be in a league of their own at the moment, and France continued to look like one of the favourites with convincing wins over Ukraine and Azerbaijan in the final qualifiers.

Only a draw with Iceland prevented them from entering the World Cup with a perfect record, and with plenty of new weapons emerging, such as Rayan Cherki and Jean-Philippe Mateta, Les Blues are in good shape.

3. England

Eight wins from eight matches, 22 goals scored and none conceded. England's qualifying campaign could hardly have gone much better.

They say defences win tournaments, and while they may not have the best one in terms of individual quality, Thomas Tuchel has made them impenetrable at the back. At the other end, meanwhile, the German is able to rely on Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka and numerous other world-class options.

His willingness to sacrifice big names, with the manager leaving Trent Alexander-Arnold out of the picture altogether and publicly criticising Jude Bellingham's attitude in order to find the optimal group, is a risky approach, but one that is very much being justified right now.

2. Argentina

The reigning world champions ended their year with a 2-0 win over Angola that provided further confirmation that Lionel Messi remains one of the best attackers in football and saw Lautaro Martinez take his tally to three goals and two assists in his last four internationals.

With the Inter man going from strength to strength in an Argentina shirt and Julian Alvarez only getting better himself, it's clear the nation will be a force to be reckoned with even without Messi.

However, it now also looks unlikely that they'll have to do without him, with the Inter Miami man's recent signing of a new three-year contract confirming that he has plenty of football left in him yet, including one final bow on the biggest stage of all.

1. Spain

There's not much to choose between the top two, but even having dropped points to Turkey in their final qualifier, Spain still look the best team in the world.

Their lack of a top striker was their main weakness heading into qualifying, but with Mikel Oyarzabal ending the campaign with six goals and four assists in six matches, that problem looks to have been solved, making them even stronger than they were when they won the Euros.

Oyarzabal has solved Spain's issues up top
Oyarzabal has solved Spain's issues up topFlashscore

They've lost just one of their last 26 - and that was on penalties - and they're scoring goals for fun. They enter 2026 as the team to beat.

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