A struggling Nottingham Forest side face one of the toughest tests the Premier League has to offer when they host reigning Premier League champions Arsenal.
Match News and Current Form
After creating several good chances but not taking enough of them, Forest manager Oliver Glasner described last week’s first half against Crystal Palace (L 3-1) as his side’s best performance of the season. It summed up their campaign, as the Tricky Trees boast an impressive expected goals (xG) figure of 10.3, but have scored just five times, leaving them lingering near the relegation zone (W1, D2, L3). Their wastefulness is proving costly, as after two straight defeats Forest risk losing three consecutive league games for the first time since December/January, an unwanted feat which seems likely if their home form this term is anything to go by (D1, L2).
Arsenal responded emphatically to losing 3-0 at Brighton, their only defeat across their last five away league games (W4), by beating Leeds 2-1 last weekend and then thrashing Lille 3-0 in the UEFA Champions League. Last year’s set-piece specialists have become this term’s open-play masters as 20 of their 21 goals this season in all competitions came from open play, a pre-matchday Premier League-high proportion of 95%. It’s in defence where they’ve struggled this term, falling behind in three of their last four league fixtures (W2, L1), but their ability to fall on the right side of tight margins is often enough to bail them out as they’ve won 17 games by a single-goal margin in the last two seasons - the most of any side in Europe’s top-five leagues pre-round.
Head-to-Head History
Arsenal have won eight of the last 11 Premier League H2Hs (D2, L1) although the last two meetings here finished goalless. Forest haven’t scored against Arsenal anywhere since January 2024 (D2, L2).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Four of Forest’s six league games this season were goalless at half-time.
Forest are the only team yet to score a Premier League goal at home this season.
Arsenal have led just one top-flight match at half-time this season (HT: D4, L1).
All three of Arsenal’s away league fixtures this term produced a goal between the 55th and 60th minute.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Dan Ndoye has scored in each of his last three appearances for club or country, while his last three goals for Forest arrived before the 25th minute. Eberechi Eze netted Arsenal’s second goal against Lille and has three goal contributions across his last five Premier League appearances against Forest (G1, A2).
Igor Jesus is sidelined for Forest, while Piero Hincapié and Martín Zubimendi are doubtful for Arsenal after recently suffering ankle injuries.
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Betting Analysis
Forest’s finishing struggles and Arsenal’s ability to grind out narrow victories suggest backing Arsenal to win by exactly one goal merits further consideration.
Author: John Pennington
