UEFA Nations League (UNL) overachievers Estonia have the opportunity to claim top spot in Group C4 if they defeat group leaders Iceland for the first time in nearly 24 years.
Match News and Current Form
Estonia’s hard-fought 1-0 win against Luxembourg on Saturday night saw them move closer to a surprise promotion to League B for the first time ever. Jürgen Henn’s side have been one of the great surprises of the UNL so far, maintaining an undefeated record (W1, D2) despite being ranked well outside of FIFA’s top 100, and the odds will again be against them once more here as they look to match their longest unbeaten run of the last decade - a series of six friendlies between 2017 and 2018. With defeats in just two of their last seven League C games (W2, D3), including two wins from three games at home (L1), Estonia may be quietly confident of achieving that feat despite their vastly inferior FIFA ranking.
Iceland lead the group courtesy of seven points from their three matches, collecting just their fourth UNL win of all-time (D6, L15) with a comfortable 3-0 win at home to Bulgaria on Saturday night. After tumbling down into League C from the highs of League A in 2020/21, Iceland have finally found a comfortable level in the UNL, one which has helped them arrest a six-match winless run prior to this UNL campaign (D2, L4). That form should help keep Icelandic feet on the floor for this game, particularly as this game comes on the road, where they’ve lost seven of their 11 UNL group stage games (W2, D2).
Head-to-Head History
Estonia’s only win from eight games against Iceland came back in 2002, with the last four meetings all ending in draws.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Estonia’s last seven matches produced under 2.5 goals.
Five of Estonia’s last six losses came by a 2+ goal margin.
Only two of Iceland’s last eight games on foreign soil (inc. neutral) saw both teams score.
Nine of Iceland’s last ten wins came by a 2+ goal margin.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Defender Rasmus Peetson has been a surprise source of goals for Estonia, scoring or assisting in their last two games, and that tends to be a good omen given his nation have never lost a game in which he’s contributed to a goal (W4, D1). Iceland’s Andri Guðjohnsen delivered their only goals in each of the last two H2Hs and has opened the scoring in two of their last three games.
Robi Saarma missed Estonia’s last match with injury, as did Icelandic pair Stefán Teitur Þórðarson and Albert Guðmundsson. Estonia captain Karol Mets and Iceland midfielder Mikael Egill Ellertsson are both serving yellow card suspensions.
For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.
Betting Analysis
With these teams conceding just one goal each after three matchdays, under 2.5 goals seems the best approach to take.
Author: Aaron Murphy
