Turkey’s winless start to this UEFA Nations League (UNL) campaign appears unlikely to improve in Bologna as they visit an Italy side they’ve never previously beaten.
Match News and Current Form
Roberto Mancini’s second spell in charge of Italy is slowly gaining momentum, bouncing back from defeat on matchday one with a victory in the reverse fixture against Turkey before rescuing a hard-fought 1-1 draw away to A1 group leaders France. The Azzurri return home hoping for better fortunes than their 2-0 loss to Belgium in their opener, and a win could elevate them into the top-two and into the thick of the play-off fight. A return of four wins - all accompanied by a clean sheet - across their last six home outings (L2) will give Italian fans plenty of confidence given that two of their final three group stage fixtures take place on home turf.
Turkey's first-ever UNL League A campaign is not going to plan, with the Crescent-Stars suffering their third consecutive defeat against Belgium on Friday (3-0). Italian manager Vincenzo Montella is coming under mounting pressure as Turkey have now lost five of their last six matches (W1) including a disappointing World Cup run, scoring just a single goal across their three UNL outings. That’s despite attempting 60 shots across those fixtures - registering at least as many as their opponents each time - while losing just one of their last seven competitive fixtures on opposition soil (W5, D1) is further reason for encouragement.
Head-to-Head History
Italy have never lost against Turkey in 15 previous meetings (W11, D4), running out emphatic 4-1 winners in last week’s reverse fixture. That continued a trend that has seen both teams score in seven of the last nine H2Hs.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Six of Italy’s last seven matches produced under 2.5 goals.
Italy conceded 12 of their last 13 goals after half-time.
Turkey failed to score in six of their last seven defeats.
Turkey have won the corner count in five of their last six fixtures.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Italy defender Alessandro Bastoni has been in fine scoring touch, finding the net in back-to-back UNL fixtures, with five of his last seven goals for club and country coming in the second half. Turkey’s Barış Yılmaz was on target in the previous H2H, though that remains the only defeat in his last seven scoring appearances for any side (W6).
Neither team has reported any fresh injury concerns heading into this clash, though Turkey will be without Arda Güler through suspension.
For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.
Betting Analysis
With Italy finding their stride under Mancini and boasting an unbeaten record against Turkey, backing Italy to win without conceding looks the best route to take.
Author: Tomáš Vlasák
