Whether you're into flutters, fantasy footy or anything inbetween, here are six predictions you ought to consider for this weekend's action.
It feels for weeks now that little has changed as far as the permutations go for the quickly closing finals race of 2025.
There’s still one win separating second-placed Adelaide from Fremantle in seventh, whilst Collingwood have lost their tight grip on first with two losses from their last three games, so none of the top-eight sides can afford to take things easily heading into September with the race for home ground advantage and the double chance wide open.
We can therefore invest in games involving finals contenders with great confidence knowing they have to give everything they’ve got in coming weeks, but a couple of other so-called ‘dead rubbers’ have caught our eye from a wagering perspective.
Sydney v Essendon (Saturday 4:15pm AEST)
Our interest in this round begins at the SCG on Saturday afternoon, where AFL betting apps have set a notably low total points handicap even for a Swans game.
That’s because Sydney is in for a terribly wet start to the weekend, with the bureau on Thursday forecasting anywhere between 10-45mm of rain across the city on Saturday, and it’s set to be persistent right throughout the day and evening.
It should make for slippery and difficult conditions for two teams who are already in the bottom half of the table for scoring, with Sydney and Essendon averaging just 79 and 68 points respectively in 2025.
If rain is to drag that down even further, a total of under 150 points appears likely, especially with Essendon’s injury list stretching out to more than a dozen players last weekend.
One man we nonetheless expect to be contributing to the modest score is Sydney forward Isaac Heeney, who on five separate occasions this year has kicked multiple goals at the SCG (five twice and two three times), whilst his teammates haven’t done so more than three times each.
That’s just one reason why he’s amongst the favourites in the goalkicking markets every week and Bet365 has your best price at time of writing with 1.65.
Match prediction: Under 149.5 total points
Player prediction: Isaac Heeney 2+ goals
Collingwood v Brisbane (Saturday 7:35pm AEST)
Collingwood fans will be hoping the second Grand Final rematch of 2025 finishes anything like the previous, when the Magpies flew up to The Gabba as $2.55 outsiders and came home with a 52-point victory.
Brisbane’s Premiership credentials continue to be shot on a regular basis and they have slipped below Adelaide and Geelong in flag betting on AFL bookmakers courtesy of three losses from their last four games against current top-eight sides, even if successive defeats to GWS and Adelaide were only because of bad kicking.
They were torn apart at the centre bounce in particular by the Suns last week in a humiliating Q-Clash and so it’ll be interesting to see here if Collingwood have learned anything from the Gold Coast’s approach.
Still, Brisbane rarely put in two consecutive poor games and are quite evenly matched with Collingwood this year across many key statistical aspects such as clearances, marks inside both 50 metre arcs and tackles at both ends of the ground.
That and Brisbane’s seven-game winning streak in Victoria is why we’re anticipating a tighter showdown on this occasion and will be fence-sitting by taking a tri-bet market.
The Pies held Brisbane forward Logan Morris goalless earlier this year but he has a strike rate of 56% for kicking 2+ goals this year, which includes both of his appearances at the MCG, so anything better than even money such as 2.07 on Unibet looks to be decent value.
Match prediction: Either team to win by under 24.5 points
Player prediction: Logan Morris 2+ goals
St Kilda v North Melbourne (Sunday 1:40pm AEST)
There’s no doubt that St Kilda got away with it last week.
Their all-time record breaking comeback, in which they overcame the biggest three-quarter time deficit in a victory, excuses the first three quarters of their performance to an extent but it also shows the effort that they’re capable of.
The Saints have covered the pre-match line in each of their last five games and, if they can carry that momentum into this week, the -24.5 handicap set by Australian bookmakers could be well short of the final margin.
It’s also worth noting that North Melbourne have one of the league’s worst records when it comes to covering the line, doing so in just 37% of matches.
It also comes as no surprise that North are amongst the worst teams of the competition when it comes to conceding possessions and so we’re expecting St Kilda’s Jack Macrae to have a busy week.
Macrae hit 25+ disposals in 59% of games this year but in four of the five in which the Saints won, so a 25+ touch haul could marry up nicely with a handsome St Kilda victory here.
Match prediction: St Kilda -24.5 points
Player prediction: Jack Macrae 25+ disposals
