Match News and Current Form
A youthful and inexperienced Japan side beat the odds and put a bruising defeat to the Maori All Blacks behind them with their first win over Wales in 12 years, conquering both a Tier 1 opposition and the sapping humidity of their own summer. It put behind them a 17-game losing streak against Tier 1 nations that included a disappointing 2023 World Cup where they finished behind England and Argentina but did enough to qualify for the 2027 edition, meaning their upcoming 2025 Pacific Nations Cup campaign has no World Cup qualification on the line.
Still, it’s all part of an important rebuild under current coach Eddie Jones who is contracted through to the end of the next World Cup. Jones has placed a high importance on “growing as a team” through 2025 and is demanding “more intensity (and) more effort” to counter what he expects will be an improved performance from the Welsh.
Wales remained in an interim period with a caretaker coach (Matt Sherratt) and, just when it seemed things couldn’t get any worse, they fell to an 18th consecutive loss against an international opposition and plummeted below both Japan and Samoa in the World Rugby rankings to be a record-low 14th.
Sherratt revealed he recently took advice from British & Irish Lions coach Andy Farrell about dealing with the “grief” of their ongoing woes and decided to give the players two days off immediately following the defeat. He reported on Thursday that the squad, who are aiming to avoid becoming the first Tier 1 nation to lose 19 consecutive matches, “are in a good place” and are preparing for the greasy conditions that will come with a closed roof on a humid day.
Head-to-Head History
Last weekend’s meeting was the first since 2016, so little can be read into the head-to-head history which sees Wales lead 3-2 since the turn of the century.
Hot Stats and Streaks
• Japan lost 22 of their last 25 games as pre-match outsiders.
• Japan failed to cover the spread in two-thirds of games since the beginning of 2024.
• Two-thirds of Wales’ games since the start of 2024 finished under the main total points handicap.
• Wales lost their last 21 matches in which they conceded the opening try.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Halatoa Vailea has been promoted to the starting lineup after scoring off the bench last weekend, following up an excellent League One season in which he recorded a try in nine of his 17 starts as a number 14. Ben Thomas continued his own excellent form in a Welsh shirt by scoring a try in a third consecutive international.
Aaron Wainwright, Freddie Thomas, Archie Griffin and flyhalf Dan Edwards - the latter of whom was hailed by Sherratt as the “X-factor” - are the new faces in the Welsh XV. Naoto Saito returns to scrumhalf for Japan whilst there were a couple of promotions off the bench.
Betting Analysis
Japan have never won back-to-back games against Tier 1 countries, highlighting just how difficult it is for them to string such performances together. It could instead be worth taking under in the total points market, knowing that ball handling will likely be difficult.
