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The race for Europe in the Premier League is heating up but who will miss out?

The Champions League trophy pictured after the 2024 final between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid at Wembley Stadium
The Champions League trophy pictured after the 2024 final between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid at Wembley StadiumDavid Catry, sportpix / Alamy / Profimedia
The race for Europe, or more specifically the Champions League, is very definitely on in the Premier League.

At the time of writing, every team has played 35 games in this season's Premier League, bar Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace

The Tricky Trees have recently lost an FA Cup semi-final whilst the Eagles progressed from one, but it's the former who are going great guns in the English top-flight.

Forest will stay put - win, lose or draw against Palace

A loss to Palace on Monday night would keep Nuno Espirito Santo's side in sixth place on 60 points and in the Europa League spot, though even a win wouldn't see them move up the table.

It would, however, bring them level with Chelsea and Newcastle, who are both currently on 63 points, and the odds are stacked in Forest's favour ahead of the fixture.

Crystal Palace are winless in their last four Premier League matches (D2 L2), have only won one of their last 14 league meetings with Nottingham Forest (D6 L7) and are winless in eight (D5 L3) against them since a 1-0 win in the Championship in December 2011.

Crystal Palace's Eddie Nketiah is fouled by Nottingham Forest's Elliot Anderson
Crystal Palace's Eddie Nketiah is fouled by Nottingham Forest's Elliot AndersonSportimage, Sportimage Ltd / Alamy / Profimedia

They also conceded 14 Premier League goals in April, the most of any side, and their joint most in a single month in Premier League history (also shipping 14 in December 2020).

Forest have never lost in nine Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W4 D5), the only opponent they have faced more than twice in the competition without losing, and the only side the Eagles have faced five or more times in the Premier League without winning.

Furthermore, the Midlands-based side have won two of their last three away Premier League games in London (L1), as many as they did across their previous 23 trips to the capital combined (W2 D5 L16). They're looking to win three away games in London in a season for only the second time in the Premier League, also doing so in 1994/95.

Crystal Palace don't like Mondays

Palace's Oliver Glasner won't need reminding either that in Palace's last 24 Premier League matches played on a Monday, they've only won three (D9 L12), although one of those came the last time they played at home on a Monday in May 2024 when they hammered Man United 4-0.

Whatever the outcome, Forest's thoughts will quickly turn to the next game as the jostling for positions continues. They'll face an already relegated Leicester and an out-of-form West Ham before Chelsea at home on the final day in what could be an epic winner-takes-all battle.

Manchester City, who currently occupy third spot in the top-flight, have Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham to play as well as the FA Cup final against Palace before heading off for the Club World Cup.

Pep Guardiola and Oliver Glasner embrace before a Manchester City vs Crystal Palace match
Pep Guardiola and Oliver Glasner embrace before a Manchester City vs Crystal Palace matchConor Molloy / ProSportsImages / DPPI via AFP / Profimedia

Newcastle face Chelsea next in what is a genuine 'six-pointer,' before heading to Arsenal and finishing the season at home to Everton.

The Gunners certainly aren't out of the woods yet, as their performance against Bournemouth proves, and aside from their Champions League semi-final second-leg against Paris Saint-Germain, Mikel Arteta's side need to emerge unscathed from their games against Liverpool and then Newcastle before heading to Southampton on the final day.

Theoretically, the Gunners could be caught if things continue to go awry at this late stage.

Aston Villa, the Champions League dark horses?

Chelsea will understand the permutations of their fixture against the Magpies and though they may fancy their chances against an out-of-form Manchester United, that final day trip to Forest could see the rug pulled from under them if they don't produce another performance akin to that which they showed against Liverpool on what was a Super Sunday for them.

The only other team realistically in with a shout of playing in Europe's top-tier competition next season at present are Unai Emery's Aston Villa.

Aston Villa's Unai Emery gives his team instructions during the match against Fulham
Aston Villa's Unai Emery gives his team instructions during the match against FulhamČTK / AP / Craig Thomas

They play Bournemouth, Tottenham and Manchester United in their trio of matches and, with respect to their opponents, will fancy their chances of easing into the top five at the last minute.

With so much at stake for all of those teams involved, there are a multitude of narratives in play, too.

Plenty of permutations ahead of the final three rounds

For example, would Alexander Isak consider staying at Newcastle if they're not in the Champions League next season?

Could Manchester City see their place taken from them if they're found guilty of any of the 115 charges made against them?

Will Chelsea risk another season of upheaval if they were to move Enzo Maresca on, should they not qualify?

Chelsea's head coach Enzo Maresca reacts next to Liverpool's Mo Salah
Chelsea's head coach Enzo Maresca reacts next to Liverpool's Mo SalahDave Shopland / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

The inherent need to be playing in European football's premier competition, aside from being able to attract - and keep - the best players, is obvious.

A win in the league phase is worth £1.8m to the victor, whilst a draw gets them a cool £600,000. An additional £800,000 is on the table for each place in the 36-team table.

It's understood that Arsenal, for example, have already earned in the region of £97m for getting to the semi-final this season, and that's clearly not to be sniffed at.

Arsenal and PSG battle it out in the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final first leg
Arsenal and PSG battle it out in the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final first legMickael Chavet / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Though the current set of circumstances in the Premier League isn't unique, given that there have been gripping ends to previous seasons, rarely has the race for the Champions League been so close between so many teams.

Goal difference could be the decider in terms of being in or out of the competition next season, and that brings into sharp focus exactly what's at stake for all of the teams in the running.

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Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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