It may appear insignificant, but Arsenal’s final position in their group could be a determining factor behind their success in Europe this season and possibly their final position in the Premier League come May.
A recent change in the Europa League competition coupled with the challenge posed by those dropping out of this season’s Champions League makes topping the group even more crucial than previous years.
Before the 2021/22 season, teams who finished top of their Europa League groups were joined in the Round of 32 draw by those who came second, as well as eight sides who finished third in each of the eight Champions League groups.
But since the creation of the Europa Conference League two seasons ago, teams who finish first and second in the Europa League groups are now separated, with the second-placed teams now playing an extra two games in the so-called knockout play-off round.
And this is where it gets tricky for Arsenal – and for any Europa League team that finishes as runners-up, including Manchester United. This two-legged play-off round exclusively features opponents who finish third in the Champions League groups.
At present, the teams occupying these third spots include European heavyweights Barcelona – whom the Gunners have won only one of their last nine meetings – as well as AC Milan, Atletico Madrid, Ajax, Sevilla and Juventus.
Arsenal should beware of teams looking for Europa League redemption for Champions League failure.
This extra knockout round is scheduled to take place on 16 and 23 February next year, and for the Gunners these matches kick-off a few days before potentially tricky away trips to Aston Villa and Leicester.
The Carabao Cup final at Wembley, should they reach that stage, is just three days later on 26 February.
Given the Gunners will already need to find extra space in their post-World Cup schedule for their rearranged home Premier League fixtures against Everton and Manchester City – both postponed due to the death of the Queen – squeezing two extra matches against one of Europe’s biggest teams just to qualify for the Round of 16 will almost certainly congest their schedule as well as risk injury to key players in what will be a crucial time of the season.
Yet avoid defeat in Eindhoven next week, however, and Arsenal will top the group - and their title pursuits could well and truly be on.
