That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Almere vs Excelsior, Friday 20:00 CET
Although only a single point currently separates Excelsior and Almere in the Dutch Eredivisie table, their match against each other has a fairly clear favourite. While Almere should be ranked 15th according to the expected points metric, Excelsior of Rotterdam are the eighth best based on it. Going forward, the quality is clearly on the visitors' side.
Marinus Dijkhuizen's side play with the lowest defensive block in the league and wait patiently for the opportunity for quick breaks. On average, this situation occurs 4.2 times per game, the fourth-highest behind PSV, Feyenoord and Go Ahead Eagles. Moreover, they are very efficient in their execution - they have racked up the third-highest number of expected and actual goals from counterattacks. Almere, meanwhile, don't fare well against teams playing this way, regularly allowing them a large number of dangerous shots from such attacks.
In addition, Excelsior's key offensive players should be available for the game - forward Troy Parrot and winger Couhaib Driouech. Thanks to their good positioning and movement, the team often creates opportunities inside the box and Driouech's crosses are also very dangerous. What's more, Almere are most vulnerable to those two situations. It would therefore be a big surprise if the Rotterdam side don't extend their streak of 11 games in which they have managed to score. During that run, they have scored against PSV, Feyenoord, Twente and Alkmaar.
Swansea vs Plymouth, Saturday 16:00 CET
After two difficult matches (against leaders Leicester and third-placed Southampton), currently seventeenth Swansea will play fifteenth-placed Plymouth in England's Championship. Although the bookmakers predict that they will have a great chance to win at home, it will not be so clear-cut for the Welsh side. Defensively, this is a match between two evenly-matched teams, but offensively Plymouth clearly stand out.
With an average of 1.53 expected goals created (and 1.73 scored) per game, Plymouth possess the sixth-best attack in the Championship, while Swansea is only 15th in this respect with 1.19. And while the visitors can deploy all their aces for the match, the hosts should be missing not only their top scorer Jamal Lowe but also right-back Josh Key. The latter is one of the most creative players under new coach Luke Williams.
Plymouth are one of the most counterattacking teams in England's second tier and that is a formidable weapon. Only three other teams have scored more goals from quick counterattacks. Swansea don't suit this style of play defensively - allowing the fourth-highest volume of chances from quick breaks. Alongside this, Plymouth also create a large number of chances by successive attacks.
Analyses of passes in the final third of the pitch show that Plymouth often penetrate the box with passes and produce good crosses and diagonals from both sides. From all these scenarios, Swansea allow a high volume of shots and Plymouth should therefore have plenty of opportunities to score during the game.
Manchester United vs West Ham, Sunday 15:00 CET
Out of the last seven games in the Premier League, Manchester United have only managed to win two and mathematical models show that this record is due to very poor performances at both ends of the pitch. Judging by the quality of the goal-scoring opportunities created and the ones they allow their opponents, they are the 13th-best team in the Premier League in both cases. Their current seventh place therefore looks very fortunate.
Not only do Erik ten Hag's side produce a low number of good chances during matches but they often fail at finishing as well. On average, they score only 1.18 times per game (excluding penalties), which in practice means that only five other teams have scored fewer goals in the current league season. What's more, it will be very difficult for the Red Devils to do so in Sunday's game against West Ham.
It's not that the London side are one of the teams with a solid defensive record, however. Quite the opposite. In fact, they often allow their opponents dangerous chances close to their goal and they can largely owe their current position in the table to Alphonso Areola, who is the best goalkeeper in England this season. If the average league goalkeeper faced identical shots to Areola, he would have conceded eight more goals according to analytical models.
The trouble, however, is that United rely heavily on counterattacks, which West Ham's deep block will provide them with only to a very limited extent. In terms of the quality of shots allowed, only Manchester City and Arsenal are better at defending counterattacks than West Ham. Moreover, they rarely concede from counterattacks - they have allowed their opponents to score only four times, which is the best result of all 20 teams in the league.
Set pieces will also be a big weapon for West Ham, aided by the summer arrival of their midfield maestro James Ward-Prowse. Corners, in particular, pose a threat. United have conceded the fourth-highest volume of chances from corners in the league while their opponents are the second-best in terms of scoring from them. Their first meeting just before Christmas ended with West Ham winning 2-0 after a dominant performance. And it wouldn't be a surprise if United struggled this time around as well.
