France could secure their spot at next summer’s World Cup finals if they beat Iceland and are in receipt of a favourable result in Group D’s other game.
Match News and Current Form
Finishing in the play-off spot is realistically the only remaining chance that Iceland have of reaching only their second World Cup finals. Iceland have only beaten basement boys Azerbaijan in Group D so far, but that matchday one victory must feel like a lifetime ago after they most recently went down 5-3 against Ukraine on Friday night. That result is in keeping with 2025 as a whole for Iceland, a year in which they were relegated into the League C of the UEFA Nations League for the first time ever, and having lost five of their seven internationals in this calendar year (W2), another unsuccessful World Cup qualification (WCQ) campaign would surprise few.
It’s been a perfect start to Group D so far for France, who have won all three games to move them to the brink of being among the first European nations to qualify. Qualifying for the World Cup is more of an expectation than a hope for France, who have competed at every finals since 1998, and their solid start has left them in a great position to extend that run. Stretching their current winning run to five matches could be enough to rubber stamp their ticket to the USA, Canada and Mexico next summer, and an impressive run of five wins from their last seven games on foreign soil (L2) suggests it certainly isn’t out of the question here.
Head-to-Head History
These sides have met 16 times prior and France have avoided defeat each time (W12, D4), winning six of the last seven H2Hs.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Iceland have conceded 2+ goals in eight of their last 12 internationals.
Six of Iceland’s last eight internationals saw both teams score.
France have scored in both halves in their last four matches.
France have scored on or beyond the 80th minute in five of their last six games.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson is in line to secure his 50th Iceland cap here and he knows what it takes to down a top-five FIFA-ranked nation having scored the winner in a 1-0 victory against England in June 2024. Jean-Philippe Mateta will be hoping to get the nod from the start having opened the scoring with his last three goals at club level.
Iceland appear to have come through Friday’s game unscathed, while France are sweating on the fitness of Kylian Mbappé, who was withdrawn with an injury against Azerbaijan.
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Betting Analysis
With the incentive of potential qualification here, backing France in the -1 handicap market looks appealing.
Author: Chris Wilson
